Study: long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as $2,500+ wagers at odds of 35% or less, have a ~52% average win rate, vs. 25% for political bets
High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets
Financial Times
Related Coverage
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Discussion
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@frederikobermaier.com
Frederik Obermaier
on bluesky
More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report @acdatacollective.bsky.social that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognised to the security of sensitive information.
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@drewharwell.com
Drew Harwell
on bluesky
Is it a good thing for the world that people can now secretly monetize their access to classified information on the timing and success of military strikes — www.ft.com/content/989d... [image]
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Nicola Borri
Nicola Borri
on linkedin
A striking piece in the Financial Times on prediction markets. — The standard narrative is that these platforms harness the “wisdom of the crowd.” …