Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports betting on CFTC-regulated prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket
just with a different name. They are being offered in states where sports betting is illegal, like California, while federal regulators are greenlighting them rather than enforcing the law. My bipartisan legislation with @SenJohnCurtis would close this backdoor and end these illegal markets.Coffeezilla /@coffeebreak_yt:“Casino lobby hard at work” says guy part of a prediction market lobby group. [image]Ross Gerber /@gerberkawasaki:The end of kalshi's illegal sports betting operation is near. T
It arrives as scrutiny has widened beyond sports: Kalshi and Polymarket were recently reported to be marketing prediction markets to college students, while later Senate action addressed lawmakers’ own participation in the platforms.
First-order effects
Schiff and Curtis’s bill puts Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC-regulated sports-contract model under direct congressional challenge; it does not itself end those offerings.
The measure reframes sports event contracts as a potential regulatory backdoor rather than merely a new financial-market product, increasing legal and policy uncertainty for the platforms.
Second-order effects
If the bill advances, state-licensed sportsbooks could gain a clearer argument that federally regulated prediction platforms should not be able to reach customers in states that restrict sports betting.
The dispute could force a more explicit boundary between federal commodities oversight and state gambling authority, rather than leaving sports contracts to be defined primarily through platform design and regulator interpretation.
It is part of a broader legitimacy test for prediction-market platforms: growth into consumer wagering can invite restrictions that also shape how quickly their non-sports products scale.
The trend: Prediction markets are moving from a niche financial-regulation question toward a jurisdictional fight over whether event contracts can function as nationwide consumer betting products.
Casino lobby hard at work. There is a reason tens of millions of people use regulated prediction markets: it's a better product. Banning just pushes this offshore, where no regulation exists. This bill isn't about protecting consumers; it's about protecting monopolies.
The most fascinating legal battle in sports media right now is whether it's legal for prediction markets to do sports. State legal cases are everywhere. Now a senate bill has been introduced to try and ban prediction markets from sports: https://www.wsj.com/...
why should anyone care to advance sportsbetting and other forms of vice technology designed to recycle ubi dollars from western democracies? prediction markets are a cool concept but can someone remind me why anyone cares if odds on sports games get better price discovery?
Prediction markets are offering sports bets — just with a different name. They are being offered in states where sports betting is illegal, like California, while federal regulators are greenlighting them rather than enforcing the law. My bipartisan legislation with @SenJohnCur…
The end of kalshi's illegal sports betting operation is near. The rush to separate young people from their money will be stopped. https://www.wsj.com/...
This is a real thing. The betting markets allow those with inside knowledge to profit from it. It's an invitation to corruption. Meanwhile, Trump Jr. has a relationship with BOTH of the leading prediction sites. What could possibly grow wrong?
Young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not federal regulators. Our bipartisan bill ensures that states can maintain their authority over these markets. https://www.wsj.com/...
@thiccyth0t there's rly no good reason to promote better price discovery on sports; it's all about moving it out of black/gray markets into regulated/taxed ones that are much more easily surveilled
There's a reason tens of millions of people use “regulated” sports betting sites masquerading as prediction markets: it's been relentlessly pushed down the throats of sports watchers in the US for the last couple of years in order to find and extract max $ from problem gamblers.
President Trump, his cabinet, members of Congress, and all federal officials cannot bet on prediction markets tied to U.S. policy or military action. This can be done by an executive order, but we know that won't happen, as Donald Trump has normalized corruption in the White [vid…
Funny how lawmakers are concerned about prediction markets where traders actually set the odds, rather than centralized companies that extract bettors through house edge. DraftKings, for one, spent $945K on lobbying last year. Guess where that money went. [image]
Kalshi spox @ediyork statement: “Banning sports on regulated prediction markets would just push this behavior offshore, where no regulation exists. “It's clear this bill is motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition. They're more worried about protecting
banning sports on polymarket is like 9/11 for them out of $350mil total volume, sports represents $225mil that's 66% or 2/3 of their entire volume would've been a great short if $poly was live [image]
This would be devastating for Kalshi, and quite bad for Polymarket. Majority of Kalshi's volume comes from sports betting. Polymarket is a bit more diversified, but will still be a good chunk for them as well. Might even convince some of the airdrop farmers to stop too.
Big news (although long way to go before this becomes law) Kalshi responded, saying this is “motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition.” “Banning sports on regulated prediction markets would just push this behavior offshore, where no regulation exists.”
Interesting how none of them want to ban sports betting in betting apps that can front run customers and set their own odds though. But the gambling lobby that donates millions to Congress shows up, and now Congress cares about the more strictly regulated CFTC approved industry?…
“DraftKings stock rose 7.2% in premarket trading early Monday morning. Shares of Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, gained 9.4%.” https://www.wsj.com/...
There's now a bipartisan effort in the Senate to boot prediction markets like Kalshi out of sports betting. Republican John Curtis, from anti-gambling Utah, is co-sponsoring the bill with Trump foe Adam Schiff (D, CA). Scoop from my WSJ colleague @kryshur https://www.wsj.com/...