Analysis: since 2025's end, Polymarket users rarely bet large sums on US strikes by the next day; the day before the Iran strikes, 150+ accounts made such bets
New York Times Amy Fan
Related Coverage
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- Senator Flags White House ‘Corruption’ Concerns Over Iran War Predictions Markets Decrypt · Vismaya V
- The unusual bets on Trump's war that have rung alarm bells Sydney Morning Herald · Stephen Bartholomeusz
- We Almost Got Gambling On Actual Nuclear War Before Fallout 5 Kotaku · Lewis Parker
- Gamblers make big profits on Iran strikes, raising insider trading concerns Al Jazeera · Andy Hirschfeld
- Prediction Markets Roll Out New War Bets Beyond Washington's Reach Bloomberg · Denitsa Tsekova
- Polymarket Takes Down Betting on Nuclear Detonation After Backlash Truthout · Sharon Zhang
- Polymarket removes long-running markets that let users bet on if a nuclear weapon will be detonated, amid the Iran strikes; a 2025 contract had $1.7M+ in volume CoinDesk · Sam Reynolds
- Polymarket had bets on when nuclear war might happen that were running for a while. For some reason they decided to take them down, can't imagine why, it's not like prediction markets risk creating perverse incentives or anything https://www.coindesk.com/... @cwebber@social.coop · Christine Lemmer-Webber
Discussion
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@sstapczynski
Stephen Stapczynski
on x
LNG has gone mainstream. This is on Polymarket [image]
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@evanhill
Evan Hill
on x
NYT finds a surge of Polymarket bets placed in the 24 hours beforehand predicting Iran strikes the next day, indicating insider knowledge. (Funny note: Polymarket hasn't resolved the wager since it can't decide if any strikes hit prior to Feb. 28 ET) https://www.nytimes.com/...
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@alex_panetta
Alexander Panetta
on x
You have to wonder whether traditional laws apply here: breach of trust, or national-security law.
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@sam_federman
Sam Federman
on x
Wow. It's almost like unregulated prediction markets are a haven for insider trading. Who would've thought?
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@hissgoescobra
John Jackson
on x
You're telling me 150 fucking accounts rolled 7 the same day on some obtuse shit like a war kicking off? Come on.
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@tripgabriel
Trip Gabriel
on x
A NYT analysis of Polymarket since June found it was unusual to bet a significant sum that a U.S. strike would happen the next day But on Friday, 150+ accounts bet at least $1k predicting a US strike on Iran by Saturday - suggesting insider trading https://www.nytimes.com/...
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@shashj
Shashank Joshi
on bluesky
“Over the weekend, Bubblemaps flagged six Polymarket accounts that had made a total of $1.2 million betting on the timing of the Iran strike, noting that most of the accounts were relatively new and had specifically traded on a strike by Saturday” — www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/u…
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r/politics
r
on reddit
How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened