Analysis: since 2025's end, Polymarket users rarely bet large sums on US strikes by the next day; the day before the Iran strikes, 150+ accounts made such bets
New York Times Amy Fan
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Discussion
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NewsMax.com
Solange Reyner
on x
Polymarket Bettors Cashed In Before Iran Strike
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@shashj
Shashank Joshi
on bluesky
“Over the weekend, Bubblemaps flagged six Polymarket accounts that had made a total of $1.2 million betting on the timing of the Iran strike, noting that most of the accounts were relatively new and had specifically traded on a strike by Saturday” — www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/u…
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r/politics
r
on reddit
How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened
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@tripgabriel
Trip Gabriel
on x
A NYT analysis of Polymarket since June found it was unusual to bet a significant sum that a U.S. strike would happen the next day But on Friday, 150+ accounts bet at least $1k predicting a US strike on Iran by Saturday - suggesting insider trading https://www.nytimes.com/...
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@sam_federman
Sam Federman
on x
Wow. It's almost like unregulated prediction markets are a haven for insider trading. Who would've thought?
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@evanhill
Evan Hill
on x
NYT finds a surge of Polymarket bets placed in the 24 hours beforehand predicting Iran strikes the next day, indicating insider knowledge. (Funny note: Polymarket hasn't resolved the wager since it can't decide if any strikes hit prior to Feb. 28 ET) https://www.nytimes.com/...
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@alex_panetta
Alexander Panetta
on x
You have to wonder whether traditional laws apply here: breach of trust, or national-security law.
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@hissgoescobra
John Jackson
on x
You're telling me 150 fucking accounts rolled 7 the same day on some obtuse shit like a war kicking off? Come on.
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@sstapczynski
Stephen Stapczynski
on x
LNG has gone mainstream. This is on Polymarket [image]