Kuo: Apple Car's unclear development schedule means it may launch in 2025-2027, while changes in EV and self-driving markets may push the launch to 2028
MacRumorsJoe Rossignol
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's forecast put Apple’s vehicle effort on a multi-year, uncertain timetable rather than a fixed product schedule. Later coverage traced a volatile path: reports first described a fully autonomous vehicle target for 2025, then a vehicle with steering wheel, pedals, and highway-only autonomy, before a shift from Level 4 to Level 2+ and a later launch window.
First-order effects
For Apple, the report sets expectations around a long development cycle, making the vehicle program’s autonomy scope and launch timing the immediate measures of progress.
Second-order effects
The later sequence of reported delays and reduced autonomy makes Apple’s EV positioning more dependent on delivering a conventional driver-assistance product than on being first with full self-driving capability.
Third-order effects
If the pattern of later launches paired with narrower autonomy targets persists, EV programs will be differentiated less by declared self-driving ambition and more by the ability to ship validated capabilities on a credible schedule.
The trend: Apple’s reported EV path is part of a broader recalibration in which autonomous-driving ambitions are being translated into more constrained, later vehicle programs.
@AngelLamuno @fluids_guru @Apple @Tesla @gassee The truest damnation of electric cars is the reality that they are not only cars but better cars. Don't come with ideas of better cars. They are far beyond good enough. What the world needs is worse cars.
I admit that it does not seem like a reasonable expectation, but can I still hope that the #EV @Apple is developing (project #Titan) is not something like a @Tesla but rather a #micromobility EV that is to the #bicycle what the #iPhone was to the feature phone? @asymco @gassee
“Apple Car specifications have yet to be finalized...” 👀 As it ever was....the friction of trying to launch a product in parallel to a bunch of unknowns https://twitter.com/...
Apple Car rumors went from 2021 (obviously-sketchy report from Taiwan's Economic Daily News) to 2024 production (Reuters) to 2025-2027 launch at the earliest, and possibly 2028 or later (Ming-Chi Kuo) So we're back to square one: Apple Car remains a distant reality
Kuo isn't exactly accurate with dates(with products he is the best, tbh, but he usually misses on dates), but he is correct here. https://twitter.com/...