Discussion

• @gavinsbaker Gavin Baker on x

  6) I think likely medium-term impact, beyond China retaliating against prominent American tech companies with large businesses in China, is that China relaxes restrictions on their companies using cloud computing services from American hyperscalers.

• @gdp1985 Gerard DiPippo on x

  These export controls seem like a BFD. When people say things like, “it will take China decades to catch up,” I wonder how we can know that. But this certainly vindicates China's obsession with self sufficiency... Some good @pstAsiatech @FuDaoge quotes. https://www.ft.com/... htt…

• @robertalanward Robert Ward on x

  ‘Kneecapping’ China's tech development with these new controls from the US is spot on. Breadth striking, not least the curtailing of US citizens working for Chinese chip companies. China's chip industry set for deep pain from US export controls via @FT https://giftarticle.ft.com/…

• @gavinsbaker Gavin Baker on x

  7) For better or worse, this is the *only* way I can see for China to be able to continue using cutting edge HPC over time for the basic scientific research where HPC is essential. Potentially ok with American gov as the workloads can be monitored. Oracle/TikTokseque.

• @tmitchpk Tom Mitchell on x

  “We need to find a way for [US nationals] to continue working for our company. This is very difficult,” said an executive at a Chinese tech firm. “Most people are not willing to give up their US passports.” ... https://www.ft.com/...

• @gavinsbaker Gavin Baker on x

  1) The new US export controls on semiconductors feel like the plot of the “Three Body Problem” unfolding in the real world. The export controls will function like Sophons given supercomputers are essential for some basic scientific research in addition to military applications

• @gavinsbaker Gavin Baker on x

  4) Good article on the broader impact beyond HPC vendors. There are no work arounds in the next 5-10 years. It is simply not possible to design and manufacture leading edge semiconductors without US software (EDA) and US semicap equipment. https://www.ft.com/...

• @gavinsbaker Gavin Baker on x

  8) We will see if China can come up with a “Dark Forest” like response that durably changes this new American policy. Regardless, this is a very aggressive new policy with significant implications.

• @hancocktom Tom Hancock on x

  “Some of these restrictions are so broad that we believe they would cripple much less advanced semiconductor processes, not just the advanced ones specifically called out” https://semianalysis.substack.com/ ...

• @jchengwsj Jonathan Cheng on x

  “To put it mildly, [Chinese companies] are basically going back to the Stone Age,” said Szeho Ng, Managing Director at China Renaissance. https://www.ft.com/...

• @bgurley Bill Gurley on x

  Super dangerous game U.S. is playing. First, our economy benefits from low-cost Chinese goods (does our gov't believe in comparative advantage?) Second, action could promote a move on Taiwan (or is this a bargaining chip in that discussion?). https://www.ft.com/...

• @ohlennart Lennart Heim on x

  The list and document is long, I've only skimmed it so far. I can recommend this NYT article https://www.nytimes.com/... and this summary by @DylanOnChips https://semianalysis.substack.com/ .... Here's the official PDF (139 pages): https://public-inspection.federalregist er.gov/ …

• @ulrichspeck Ulrich Speck on x

  Are we still sure that China will become the world's leading economic power, as so many have predicted? Autocracy has costs: The need to control the population and the struggle to weaken the US-led liberal international order are hampering China's economic rise. https://twitter.c…

• @ft @ft on x

  China's chip industry set for deep pain from US export controls https://www.ft.com/...