Discussion

• @thetrillbillies @thetrillbillies on x

  The existence of polymarket, kalshi, etc is bad enough but not every punt they have on offer is gonna have objective winners/losers like say a football game or an election and my hunch is they'll move the goalposts anytime they're in danger of getting taken to the cleaners lol

• @rmdmac Roberto Machado on x

  I've become quite interested in prediction markets, lately, and this is one of the more interesting aspects of the whole thing: As these markets expand, how do we resolve these disputes? https://x.com/...

• @admcrlsn Adam Carlson on x

  Hahahahahahaha

• @trader_53 @trader_53 on x

  Gamblers, trying to collect their payout from Polymarket, left baffled as they learn that the US operation carried out in Venzuela does not meet Polymarket's definition of an invasion - Marketwatch [image]

• @ahall_research Andy Hall on x

  As prediction markets scale, reliable and credibly neutral resolution mechanisms will become critical. The evolution of social media content moderation is a very tight analogue for this and points to four likely developments: (1) The development of internal expertise in the

• @divine_economy David Phelps on x

  sorry but: it would be way more fun, profitable, and meaningful if polymarket used opinion markets to settle disputes did the US invade venezuela? ask this on @jokerace_io, and voters would be incentivized to pick the answer they thought would get most consensus problem solved

• @mikeandallie Mike Lawler on x

  You see fights like this in the world of insurance all the time. And raise your hand if you know how the credit derivative world figured out how to stop fights like this :)

• @kath_krueger Katherine Krueger on x

  this is extremely funny. betting sites are now tasked with defining what an “invasion” is

• @theneedledrop @theneedledrop on x

  psa: crypto gambling is stupid and you're stupid if you do it.

• @yc @yc on x

  Getting people to care about the rule of law by screwing their parlays???

• @ripplebrain @ripplebrain on x

  Polymarket more correct

• @edzitron Ed Zitron on x

  [image]

• @fortunapro_sol Fortuna Protocol on x

  You should be able to set your own outcome rules. Own the Prediction and own the outcome.

• @carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on bluesky

  Polymarket is refusing to pay out bets with over $10.5M in wagers that the U.S. would “invade” Venezuela.  The company has argued that what happened last week isn't an invasion because the U.S. military doesn't control Venezuela.  —  While they have a point, this is such a gross …

• @nicoledesignsdata.com Nicole Mark on bluesky

  It should be interesting to see how this shakes out.  [embedded post]

• @emilyjnicolle Emily Nicolle on x

  icymi: we did a Big Take on where prediction markets stand in 2026 — from insider trading and resolution issues, to the weird things you can bet on these days https://www.bloomberg.com/...

• @business @business on x

  The growing American embrace of gambling is allowing prediction markets like Polymarket to pitch Wall Street on a new but flawed information hack for the American economy https://www.bloomberg.com/...

• @dustingouker Dustin Gouker on x

  Really good look at where we're at with prediction markets from Bloomberg: [image]

• @bobbyallyn Bobby Allyn on bluesky

  “Meanwhile, economists have long warned about so-called “assassination markets” — bets that could, in theory, reward violence by tying payouts to deaths or attacks.”  —  www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...