A new Polymarket account bet $30K on Maduro's capture just hours before Trump's announcement, renewing questions on insider information in prediction markets
- These bets — many of which were on Maduro's capture, and are now on what happens next to the ousted leader …
Axios Herb Scribner
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- polymarket should lean into this bit and host bets like “will there be an insider trade on our platform in the next month” though imagine having the cojones to buy a “no” position on that... @joshpetersel · Josh
- @Techmeme are there prediction market monitoring services that tell you when someone makes a big bet against your well-being? That seems like a service that would have been really useful for Nicolas Maduro. @evan@cosocial.ca · Evan Prodromou
- Someone just turned $32K into $436K on Polymarket by betting on Maduro being overthrown this month. — The ability to gamble on any event also means the ability to insider trade on any event. — https://www.axios.com/... [image] @carnage4life@mas.to · Dare Obasanjo
Discussion
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@joepompliano
Joe Pompliano
on x
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged. [image]
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@tysonbrody
Tyson Brody
on x
Some war related insider trading? A brand new account in polymarket, only invested in US going to war with Venezuela and Maduro out by January 31. Up 13k so far, was spending thousands on Maduro out at bargain prices as recently as 4 hours ago. Now it's at .50. [image]
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@meustermint
@meustermint
on x
This Polymarket trader who made 400k from Maduro/Venezuela, buying before the strikes started, could very well be someone from the MSM 🤯 [image]
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@poesdec
@poesdec
on x
they knew about the strikes on Venezuela hours early war on Venezuela speedrun: > a few hours ago Trump sent forces into Venezuela > 20 minutes ago Trump said they captured Maduro > and that's the end 3 hours before the attack, a fresh polymarket account bought YES on “Maduro [vi…
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@quiverquant
@quiverquant
on x
Holy cow. Yesterday, a new account on Polymarket made a massive bet that Maduro would be out of office by January 31st. Today, the United States carried out strikes on Venezuela and captured Maduro. The trader has now made over $400K. Insider or lucky? [image]
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@gghurley
@gghurley
on bluesky
And proceeded to gain (win) over $400k? Is that right?
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@ryanlcooper.com
Ryan Cooper
on bluesky
one wonders if it was someone in a decision making capacity making this bet www.axios.com/2026/01/03/m...
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@joshsternberg.com
Josh Sternberg
on bluesky
Keep your eye on this. It's corruption, all the way down. Profiteering, they used to call it. — Watch Kushner and Trump Jr et al “business associates” go into Venezuela to see where they can benefit. — www.axios.com/2026/01/03/m...
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@upbeachbum
@upbeachbum
on bluesky
Some in this regime are profiting big time on inside information. Doesn't seem too legal. 🤔 — “ a newly created account appeared to invest $30,000 Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, that same investor netted $436,759.61.” — www.axios.…
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@peoplesfabric.com
@peoplesfabric.com
on bluesky
“What appears to be a newly created account appeared to invest $30,000 Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, that same investor netted $436,759.61.”
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@raymondnorman
Raymond Norman
on bluesky
What appears to be a newly created account appeared to invest $30,000 Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, that same investor netted $436,759.61. — Polymarket did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment Saturday morning — ww…