Numerator: during Amazon's second Prime Day, the average US order size was $46.44, down 23% from the July Prime Day, mostly comprising household essentials
Amazon.com Inc. shoppers are largely skipping pricey purchases during the company's Prime sale sequel — favoring pantry items … Tweets: @_katya_long , @newsynick , and @paul__armstrong Tweets: Katherine Long / @_katya_long : Amazon Prime Day 2.0 recap - average order size 23% smaller than Prime Day 1.0 - peak order volume down 17% from Prime Day 1.0 (https://t.co/...) - workers at 4 warehouses held walkouts for higher wages https://twitter.com/... Nick Turner / @newsynick : Amazon shoppers aren't celebrating the new additional Prime Day with as much enthusiasm. Average order size down more than 20% from the one in July https://www.bloomberg.com/... via @spencersoper Paul Armstrong / @paul__armstrong : This will still make Amazon a bucket of cash. More on this week's ‘What Did Amazon Do This Week?’ https://whatdidamazondothisweek.substac k.com/ about https://twitter.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
Amazon set this up in June 2022 when it told merchants it would run two Prime shopping events in one year for the first time, with the second slotted into Q4 to jump-start holiday spending. The July edition had already read as muted, focused on discounted Amazon-made products rather than headline deals.
The Numerator numbers on the October sequel confirm the second event isn't landing as a second Prime Day: baskets are smaller, essentials-heavy, and peak volume ran 17% below July — while workers at four warehouses used the sale window to walk out over wages.
First-order effects
- Third-party merchants who built Q4 inventory around the announced second event face softer demand than planned, since shoppers spent an average of just $46.44 mostly on pantry staples rather than big-ticket goods.
- Amazon is running its marquee sales event while warehouse walkouts at four facilities press the wage issue at peak visibility.
Second-order effects
- An essentials-only basket does little to seed holiday gift demand, undercutting the Q4 priming rationale that justified adding the fall event in the first place.
- Merchants weighing whether to stock future fall events now have a weak-debut data point against them, pushing the burden onto Amazon to prove the second event earns its slot.
Third-order effects
- If each added event dilutes rather than extends Prime Day, the franchise drifts from a scarcity-driven deal spectacle toward routine promotion cadence — a trajectory later coverage makes concrete, from the 2025 analysis finding just 0.6% average savings during the October Prime Days to the shortfall in 5.4M US Prime sign-ups ahead of the 2025 four-day event.
The trend: Prime Day is evolving from an annual scarcity event into a recurring promotions calendar whose per-event lift shrinks with each addition, forcing Amazon to defend the program's value to both shoppers and merchants.