Tractor maker Deere, which plans self-driving tractors in 2022, predicts that 10% of its revenue will come from software fees by the end of the decade
including cutting grass, churning it to dry, laying fertilizer, and harvesting — will be entirely automated. https://twitter.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The 10% software-revenue target is the monetization payoff of a build-out Deere has been assembling for years: the machine-learning startup Blue River in 2017, the $250M Bear Flag Robotics deal in 2021, and the fully autonomous 8R tractor that went on sale that fall. Autonomy only earns recurring fees if the machines stay connected, which is why the later Starlink satellite hookup for tractors in remote areas matters to this forecast.
First-order effects
- Farmers buying Deere autonomy shift from a one-time hardware purchase to a recurring fee relationship with the company, changing what a tractor costs to own over its life.
- Deere's dealer and service network takes on subscription management — selling, renewing, and supporting software entitlements alongside iron.
Second-order effects
- SpaceX's Starlink gains an agricultural fleet as an anchor customer class, since satellite coverage is the enabler that lets off-grid machines carry paid software features.
- The FTC right-to-repair settlement requiring Deere to supply tools and software for ten years caps how much of the software stack Deere can lock behind its own fees, forcing independent shops into the service loop.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, farm-equipment makers compete on software attach rates rather than horsepower, and regulators treat machine software access as a rights question — the FTC settlement is the template other OEMs may face.
- Connectivity becomes the gating infrastructure for agricultural automation: whoever supplies rural bandwidth (satellite or otherwise) sits upstream of every autonomy subscription.
The trend: Agricultural machinery is turning into a subscription business, with autonomy acquisitions, satellite connectivity, and right-to-repair rules together deciding who collects the recurring fees.