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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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HPE reports Q3 revenue up 1% YoY to $7B, including Intelligent Edge up 8% YoY to $941M, HPC & AI up 12% YoY to $830M, and Compute down 3% YoY to $3B

Eric J. Savitz / Barron's Online :

Barron's Online Eric J. Savitz

Context & Ripple Effects

HPE's overall growth was similarly modest in the prior-year quarter, but Intelligent Edge then grew 27%; the current 8% increase marks a slower, still-positive contribution from that business. Earlier in 2022, HPE also reported 20% order growth and a 136% rise in as-a-service orders, providing context for its push beyond traditional hardware sales.

First-order effects

  • HPE's HPC & AI and Intelligent Edge businesses add growth while Compute contracts, leaving the company dependent on those two segments to offset weakness in its largest reported unit.
  • Compute customers face a HPE portfolio whose growth is concentrated in HPC, AI and edge offerings rather than mainstream compute systems.

Second-order effects

  • The divergent segment results shift HPE's internal revenue mix toward HPC & AI and Intelligent Edge, increasing the strategic importance of converting their growth into sustained orders and services.
  • HPE's slower Intelligent Edge growth versus the prior year's 27% increase raises the bar for that segment to compensate for declining Compute revenue.

Third-order effects

  • If the segment pattern persists, HPE's business mix will be less anchored to conventional Compute sales and more exposed to demand for specialized HPC, AI and edge infrastructure.
  • The earlier acceleration in as-a-service orders suggests HPE's long-term differentiation may increasingly depend on pairing infrastructure segments with consumption-based purchasing models.

The trend: HPE is moving toward a portfolio where HPC, AI, edge and as-a-service demand must carry growth as traditional Compute sales weaken.

Discussion

  • @patrickmoorhead @patrickmoorhead on x
    $HPE Q3 good quarter & surprisingly positive guide during tough environment: -top & bottom met expectations -Rev above guide: +1% (4% CC); GMs up to 34.7%; EPS +2% -Record backlog: +3x “historical”; “enduring demand” -GreenLake : ARR $858M +22%; XaaS +39% -$587M FCF https://twitt…