Analysis: in 2022 through July, crypto transaction volumes are lagging behind 2021; illicit volumes are down 15% YoY and legitimate volumes are down 36% YoY
the cumulative number of individual transfers to scams so far in 2022 is the lowest it's been in the past 4 years. https://twitter.com/... @chainalysis : 4/ One type of crime type that's fallen in 2022 is scams. Total scam revenue for 2022 currently sits at $1.6Bn, 65% lower than it was through the end of July in 2021, and this decline appears linked to declining prices across different currencies. https://twitter.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The reading followed 2021's record inflows to criminal crypto addresses, when total crypto activity and DeFi-linked scams expanded sharply. By July 2022, the decline in scam receipts and transfers marked an early break from that surge.
The early snapshot also foreshadowed a more uneven crime picture: full-year 2022 illicit volume reached a record level, with sanctioned-entity activity accounting for a large share. Scam activity and total illicit activity therefore cannot be treated as interchangeable measures.
First-order effects
- Scam operators received $1.6B through July 2022, 65% less than at the same point in 2021, while the number of transfers reaching scams fell to a four-year low.
- Legitimate crypto activity contracted more sharply than illicit activity in the same period, leaving Chainalysis' year-over-year volume comparisons less reflective of broad market participation alone.
Second-order effects
- The gap between falling scam proceeds and later record 2022 illicit volume shifts attention toward the composition of illicit flows—particularly sanctioned-entity activity—rather than a single headline crime total.
- Chainalysis' subsequent reporting of a further 65% drop in illicit inflows in mid-2023 reinforces that crime categories can move differently across market cycles, requiring separate tracking of scams, ransomware, and sanctions-linked flows.
Third-order effects
- Crypto-risk measurement is becoming more segmented: broad transaction-volume declines do not reliably signal proportional declines across every form of illicit use.
- As later reporting found stablecoins taking the majority of illicit transaction volume in 2023, monitoring is likely to focus increasingly on the assets and routes used for settlement rather than on Bitcoin-centered activity alone.
The trend: Crypto crime analysis is shifting from aggregate volume comparisons toward category- and asset-level tracking as scams, sanctions-linked activity, and payment rails diverge.