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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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After UST's collapse, most rival algorithmic stablecoins are below their dollar peg; the biggest non-algorithmic stablecoins USDT and USDC are mostly holding

there is no path forward at this point. I would call it — Game Over. I believe as large as these two projects were — there will be a huge investigation and legal actions will be taken similar to the “Bill Hwang” situation on #WallStreet. https://twitter.com/... Peter Joseph / @zeitgeistfilm : Anyone that couldn't see this coming from a mile away has no idea what they're doing. And no. Don't “buy the dip,” like an imbecile. #BitcoinCrash #Bitcoin https://www.independent.co.uk/ ... Molly White / @molly0xfff : hey tether, u ok? 👀 https://twitter.com/... Jeremy Allaire / @jerallaire : USDC/USDT is the trade of the day. Flight to quality. @kadhim : Tether has moved off its peg https://twitter.com/... @unusual_whales : Here's a thread of founder of $LUNA, Do Kwon, calling people poor. His coin is down 99.99% since last month's high. https://unusualwhales.com/crypto https://twitter.com/... @nkulw : I'm calling it: slurp tweet was the canary in the coal mine for crypto @jemgold_ : crypto bros say astrology isn't real but this is literally happening during mercury retrograde in eclipse season what did you think was going to happen? @sbf_ftx : 1) A good point someone brough up recently: really ‘stablecoin’ is used to mean multiple different things. https://twitter.com/... Larry Cermak / @lawmaster : I think the only way out of this mess is to temporarily give up on UST, switch to USDT/USDC and fully focus on growing the L1 ecosystem. And then commit to fund collateral or pay off UST bad debt as the L1 grows. If this doesn't happen, both are heading to absolute shit (0?) Mattie / @lubchansky : it's wild that crypto is collapsing so suddenly and melodramatically. who could have guessed that my pyramid built on stilts, in quicksand, in a hurricane zone, out of matchbooks and playing cards would not be a safe place to live Matt Novak / @paleofuture : If you invested $100 in Luna one month ago, the fourth most popular cryptocurrency at the time, you now have $0.04.

Bloomberg Joanna Ossinger

Context & Ripple Effects

UST’s break from $1 followed a drop to as low as $0.60 despite the Luna Foundation Guard pledging bitcoin reserves to support it. The episode puts a sharp stress test on a segment that had been expanding even as critics warned that asset-unbacked algorithmic designs were inherently risky.

USDT and USDC holding near $1 distinguishes them from the algorithmic cohort, although USDT’s brief drop to $0.96 shows that contagion reached even the largest stablecoin.

First-order effects

  • UST and rival algorithmic stablecoins lose their immediate claim to dollar stability, while USDT and USDC become the comparatively stable options during the selloff.
  • Tether faces a direct confidence test after its brief discount, even as USDT remains closer to its peg than the algorithmic stablecoins.],

Discussion

  • @terra_money @terra_money on x
    1/ The prevailing peg pressure on $UST from its current supply overhang is rendering severe dilution of $LUNA. The primary obstacle is expelling the bad debt from UST circulation at a clip fast enough for the system to restore the health of on-chain spreads.
  • @stablekwon @stablekwon on x
    6/ Before anything else, the only path forward will be to absorb the stablecoin supply that wants to exit before $UST can start to repeg. There is no way around it. We propose several remedial measures to aid the peg mechanism to absorb supply:
  • @ariadneconill @ariadneconill on x
    LOL coinbase has now disabled the graphs for a lot of the cryptocurrencies on their platform
  • @lukeisamazing @lukeisamazing on x
    https://twitter.com/...
  • @traderkoz @traderkoz on x
    $1mil in $LUNA 3 days ago would be worth $1,746 right now This is one of the craziest things I've ever witnessed...
  • @mskidchaos @mskidchaos on x
    Bryce Elder's headlines in the Stablecoin meltdown are just🤌🏻. @FTAlphaville my compliments to the chef! https://twitter.com/...
  • @trustlessstate @trustlessstate on x
    The 2022 collapse of $LUNA superimposed over the 2018 collapse of BitConnect https://twitter.com/...
  • @stablekwon @stablekwon on x
    3/ First, if you don't understand how Terra's peg stabilization mechanism works, here is a good overview: https://twitter.com/...
  • @molly0xfff Molly White on x
    hey tether, u ok? 👀 https://twitter.com/...
  • @jerallaire Jeremy Allaire on x
    USDC/USDT is the trade of the day. Flight to quality.
  • @kadhim @kadhim on x
    Tether has moved off its peg https://twitter.com/...
  • @jqt_galaxe @jqt_galaxe on x
    2/ Honestly, No Do Kwon — there is no path forward at this point. I would call it — Game Over. I believe as large as these two projects were — there will be a huge investigation and legal actions will be taken similar to the “Bill Hwang” situation on #WallStreet. https://twitter.…
  • @zeitgeistfilm Peter Joseph on x
    Anyone that couldn't see this coming from a mile away has no idea what they're doing. And no. Don't “buy the dip,” like an imbecile. #BitcoinCrash #Bitcoin https://www.independent.co.uk/ ...
  • @unusual_whales @unusual_whales on x
    Here's a thread of founder of $LUNA, Do Kwon, calling people poor. His coin is down 99.99% since last month's high. https://unusualwhales.com/crypto https://twitter.com/...
  • @nkulw @nkulw on x
    I'm calling it: slurp tweet was the canary in the coal mine for crypto
  • @sbf_ftx @sbf_ftx on x
    1) A good point someone brough up recently: really ‘stablecoin’ is used to mean multiple different things. https://twitter.com/...
  • @jemgold_ @jemgold_ on x
    crypto bros say astrology isn't real but this is literally happening during mercury retrograde in eclipse season what did you think was going to happen?
  • @lawmaster Larry Cermak on x
    I think the only way out of this mess is to temporarily give up on UST, switch to USDT/USDC and fully focus on growing the L1 ecosystem. And then commit to fund collateral or pay off UST bad debt as the L1 grows. If this doesn't happen, both are heading to absolute shit (0?)
  • @lubchansky Mattie on x
    it's wild that crypto is collapsing so suddenly and melodramatically. who could have guessed that my pyramid built on stilts, in quicksand, in a hurricane zone, out of matchbooks and playing cards would not be a safe place to live
  • @paleofuture Matt Novak on x
    If you invested $100 in Luna one month ago, the fourth most popular cryptocurrency at the time, you now have $0.04.