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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Facebook's daily active users grew 1.6% QoQ to 1.96B in Q1 2022, vs. 1.94B est., a return to growth after Facebook's first-ever QoQ user decline in Q4 2021

Din cauza creșterii aberante a tarifelor la energie electrică șEmily McCormick / Yahoo Finance : Stock market news live updates: S&P 500, Dow close higher to recover some of Tuesday's losses; Nasdaq little changed Tweets: @shiringhaffary : Facebook's user base is no longer shrinking. Seeing the most growth in Asia-Pac and other countries outside of US/Canada/Europe. https://twitter.com/... Shira Ovide / @shiraovide : Just mentioning that in 2019, Facebook's growth rate was like 25%. Matthew Isaiah / @matthew41905514 : With all that we know now, does anyone actually believe that Facebook has returned to “user growth”? https://twitter.com/... Shira Ovide / @shiraovide : Note that average revenue per user in Facebook's biggest ad market barely increased from a year ago. Not great. https://twitter.com/... Shira Ovide / @shiraovide : Good news! Facebook users aren't shrinking anymore! Bad news: Facebook's revenue growth evaporated. 7% revenue growth in 1Q. Forecast at midpoint of guidance is for a slight DECLINE of revenue YoY.

Bloomberg Kurt Wagner

Context & Ripple Effects

Facebook's user curve has been flattening for years: growth was down to 3.47% QoQ as far back as mid-2015, and Q4 2021 brought the first sequential DAU decline in the company's history. Q1 2022's 1.6% rebound to 1.96B daily actives — beating the 1.94B estimate — is a reprieve, not a reversal.

The composition matters more than the headline number: per the reporting, nearly all the growth came from Asia-Pacific and countries outside the US, Canada and Europe, echoing the pattern from 2016 when developing-world users drove DAU gains at far lower revenue per user. Meanwhile the company had already warned in mid-2021, after a quarter of 56% YoY revenue growth, that revenue growth was set to slow sharply.

First-order effects

  • Facebook's advertising base gets confirmation the audience is not in structural retreat — the Q4 2021 decline was the bear case for ad pricing, and this print defuses it for at least another quarter.
  • Investors reading Shira Ovide's comparison — roughly 25% growth in 2019 versus 1.6% now — see a company whose user engine has shifted from compounding to replacement-level.

Second-order effects

  • With US/European audiences saturated and incremental users concentrated in low-ARPU regions, Facebook's revenue model leans harder on raising monetization per existing user — which is exactly what the planned full-screen immersive video player replacing the News Feed in international test markets is built to do.
  • The Creator Studio relaunch with an AI chatbot fits the same squeeze: retaining creators and their audiences substitutes for user acquisition as the growth lever.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, Facebook's valuation narrative completes its shift from a user-growth compounder to a monetization-intensity business, where engagement redesigns and ad pricing — not MAU/DAU lines — carry the stock.
  • A maturing core app pushes the company's growth burden onto newer surfaces and international video formats, concentrating execution risk in products with unproven ad economics.

The trend: Facebook is completing its transition from a user-growth story to a monetize-the-base story, with sequential user numbers increasingly driven by low-revenue regions while product redesigns chase higher revenue per existing user.

Discussion

  • @shiraovide Shira Ovide on x
    Just mentioning that in 2019, Facebook's growth rate was like 25%.
  • @matthew41905514 Matthew Isaiah on x
    With all that we know now, does anyone actually believe that Facebook has returned to “user growth”? https://twitter.com/...
  • @shiringhaffary @shiringhaffary on x
    Facebook's user base is no longer shrinking. Seeing the most growth in Asia-Pac and other countries outside of US/Canada/Europe. https://twitter.com/...
  • @shiraovide Shira Ovide on x
    Note that average revenue per user in Facebook's biggest ad market barely increased from a year ago. Not great. https://twitter.com/...
  • @shiraovide Shira Ovide on x
    Good news! Facebook users aren't shrinking anymore! Bad news: Facebook's revenue growth evaporated. 7% revenue growth in 1Q. Forecast at midpoint of guidance is for a slight DECLINE of revenue YoY.