Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile have spent $118.4B on 5G airwaves and network upgrades, compared to $61.8B spent on 4G, but have little to no revenue to show for it
When Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile introduced the first 5G mobile services in the U.S. three years ago … Tweets: @baxiabhishek , @adrianweckler , @gregorytaylor1 , @aallan , @dan_rowinski , @karlbode , and @lucas_shaw Tweets: Abhishek Baxi / @baxiabhishek : I told you so. Too much hype. Too much costs. And use cases and new revenue streams still in the works. https://twitter.com/... Adrian Weckler / @adrianweckler : So far, 5G has been a flop. (Operators here stopped shouting about it a while ago) https://twitter.com/... Gregory Taylor / @gregorytaylor1 : What if you build it and they don't come? https://www.bloomberg.com/... Alasdair Allan / @aallan : As far as I can make out 5G is the 3D TV of the telecom industry. Turns out, nobody needed or wanted it? https://www.bloomberg.com/... @dan_rowinski : It's still very early going for 5G. As yet, the only real benefit people have seen has been enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), and only in select areas. There's still ton of infrastructure to build and potential to unlock with 5G. https://twitter.com/... Karl Bode / @karlbode : the “race to 5G” was more like a waddle https://www.bloomberg.com/... Lucas Shaw / @lucas_shaw : Wireless providers said 5G was going to change our lives and revolutionize their industry. So far? It hasn't done much, @MoritzDispatch writes in @BW https://www.bloomberg.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The $118.4B figure closes a loop that opened years ago: critics argued as early as 2019 that the so-called race to 5G was manufactured by telecom giants wanting something new to sell at high prices, not a response to consumer demand. The buildout then underdelivered on its own terms — by early 2021 US 5G was widespread but delivering only 4G-like speeds, and city-by-city testing showed some carrier networks running slower than their own 4G layers.
First-order effects
- Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are carrying nearly double the capital commitment of their 4G cycle ($118.4B vs. $61.8B) against revenue streams that have not materialized, while consumer-facing marketing has quieted — commentators like Adrian Weckler note operators stopped shouting about 5G some time ago.
Second-order effects
- With consumer pricing power exhausted, the carriers' recovery case shifts to industrial and machine use cases — the same territory where experts say 5G's next iteration could serve autonomous cars and drones even if everyday users see little beyond faster speeds (the 5.5G pitch).
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, mobile operators face a structural squeeze: spectrum and network costs keep compounding while per-subscriber revenue stays flat, pushing the industry toward either consolidation, enterprise-focused offerings, or another hype cycle to justify the next capex round — the corner The Verge described when it reported carriers had backed themselves into debt-fueled commitments with few returns.
The trend: Mobile network capex is outrunning consumer willingness to pay, turning each generational upgrade from a revenue event into a cost-of-staying-relevant event.