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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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A look at US satellite internet speeds, with Starlink median download/upload speeds of 87.3 Mbps and 13.5 Mbps, followed by HughesNet at 19.3 Mbps and 2.5 Mbps

Satellite internet is making headlines across the globe as Starlink continues to launch service in new countries and Viasat plans to acquire Inmarsat.

Speedtest Stories & Analysis Isla McKetta

Context & Ripple Effects

Ookla's late-2021 measurements put Starlink's median US satellite speeds at 87.3 Mbps down and 13.5 Mbps up — roughly four times faster than HughesNet's 19.3/2.5 Mbps — at a moment when Starlink was [[relationships: expanding into new countries]] and Viasat was moving to acquire Inmarsat. The gap lands against a US fixed-broadband baseline that had already passed ~55 Mbps average download back in 2016, meaning the GEO incumbent now trails not just its LEO rival but terrestrial wireline norms.

First-order effects

  • HughesNet's consumer pitch collapses on raw performance: a 19.3 Mbps median cannot compete for new residential sign-ups while Starlink launches service country after country.
  • Starlink's measured lead gives it pricing power over rural customers who previously had no fast alternative, feeding the subscriber ramp the relationships data shows continuing for years.

Second-order effects

  • HughesNet responds with a spec war rather than an architecture change, eventually debuting a $110/month 100Mbps plan that doubles its previous top speed — still short of what Ookla later shows most US Starlink users actually get (~70Mbps).
  • As popularity strains the network, Starlink's own speeds dip quarter-over-quarter (per Ookla's Q1-to-Q2 2022 tracking), forcing SpaceX toward tiered monetization like the $500/month Starlink Premium instead of relying on one best-effort tier.

Third-order effects

  • The pattern resolves into market segmentation: GEO operators consolidate (Viasat-Inmarsat) and retreat to enterprise niches, culminating in Hughesnet's Chapter 11 filing after consumer subscriber losses to Starlink and a pivot to business and government customers.
  • Satellite broadband splits into capacity-tiered products — premium maritime plans at up to 350 Mbps, consumer best-effort, business SLAs — making speed-per-dollar, not coverage footprint, the competitive axis.

The trend: LEO constellations are displacing geostationary incumbents in consumer satellite internet, compressing GEO players into consolidation and government/business niches.

Discussion

  • @trengriffin Tren Griffin on x
    1/ “Starlink's median download speed decreased from 97.23 Mbps during Q2 2021 to 87.25 Mbps in Q3 2021, which could be a function of adding more customers.” Every cell on the ground has fixed capacity that increases as the constellation grows. https://www.speedtest.net/...