In 2021, 906 developers are projected to pass $1M annual revenue for the first time on Apple's App Store and Google Play, vs. 475 in 2016 and 1,003 in 2020
As global consumer spending in mobile apps is projected to again reach new heights in 2021, Sensor Tower Store Intelligence data reveals …
Context & Ripple Effects
Sensor Tower has been counting first-time million-dollar publishers since at least 2018, when it logged 164 on Apple's App Store versus 88 on Google Play in its year-end tally of first $1M publishers. The 2021 projection extends that series across both stores combined — and the number moves the wrong way: 906 developers are projected to cross $1M in 2021, below the 1,003 who did so in 2020, even as consumer spending set records.
That divergence is the story. Global mobile app spending hit a record $111B in 2020, up 30.2% YoY per Sensor Tower's full-year 2020 breakdown, and Sensor Tower had earlier forecast App Store plus Play spending more than doubling by 2023 in its five-year spending forecast. A bigger pie producing fewer new millionaires points to revenue concentrating among established titles rather than broadening across the developer base.
First-order effects
- The 906 developers projected to pass $1M in 2021 gain seven-figure annual run rates on Apple's and Google's platforms — but that cohort is about 10% smaller than 2020's 1,003, meaning fewer studios crossed the threshold in a year when total spending grew.
Second-order effects
- Apple and Google collect commissions on a spend base that keeps expanding while the entry-level winner cohort shrinks, tilting each store's payout mix further toward incumbent apps and making the $1M ladder steeper for mid-tier studios.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds — record aggregate spending alongside a flat-to-declining count of new million-dollar developers — the app economy matures into a market where growth accrues to established publishers, raising effective barriers for new entrants and sharpening developer scrutiny of store commissions and discoverability.
The trend: Mobile app spending keeps setting records while the pool of newly minted million-dollar developers narrows, marking an app economy whose growth increasingly concentrates at the top.