A look at the cycles of decentralization and recentralization, and why we won't understand what Web3 consists of until after the next bubble pops
There's been a lot of talk about Web3 lately, and as the person who defined “Web 2.0” 17 years ago, I'm often asked to comment. Tweets: @oreillymedia , @amyjokim , @fredbenenson , @tgoetz , @robertdouglass , @acroll , @timoreilly , @arthurattwell , @josemurilo , @dcolthrust , @ricmac , @jherskowitz , @mmasnick , @kwerb , @sanjiva , and @johnbattelle Tweets: @oreillymedia : Our founder @timoreilly thinks it's too early to get excited about #Web3 and, as the person who defined Web 2.0, he should know. Here's why: https://www.oreilly.com/... Amy Jo Kim / @amyjokim : “The easy money to be made speculating on #crypto assets seems to have distracted developers & investors from the hard work of building useful real-world services...” insightful historical perspective by @timoreilly https://www.oreilly.com/... @fredbenenson : Relieved to read @timoreilly weighing in on Web3: “None of the examples ... focus on the utility of what is being created, just the possibility that they will make their investors and creators rich.” https://www.oreilly.com/... Thomas Goetz / @tgoetz : Been waiting for this one: A smart, skeptical must-read essay on Web3 by the inestimable @timoreilly https://www.oreilly.com/... Robertdouglass.X / @robertdouglass : Tim O'Reilly offers a nuanced and insightful big picture on Web3 and blockchain technologies, arguing that it's not yet clear how big of a thing they are going to be. https://www.oreilly.com/... #HIVE Alistair Croll / @acroll : Also, you should read @timoreilly's piece on hype cycles and how when a value chain gets disintermediated or decentralized, it tends to recentralize somewhere else. https://www.oreilly.com/... @timoreilly : @BrianForde ... By coincidence, I just wrote about the topic. My main point is that we won't really know whether crypto is actually the basis for web3 until after the bubble bursts. It's a it of a context-setting with @CarlotaPrzPerez's theory of productive bubbles. https://www.oreilly.com/... Arthur Attwell / @arthurattwell : This thoughtful piece by @timoreilly is a must-read on Web3. A welcome relief from the polarised hype-and-gripe that dominates the discussion. https://www.oreilly.com/... @josemurilo : “Cryptocurrencies may well be the future of finance, but at the moment it's hard to see what's really working, given how much smoke is being blown. The interface between crypto and existing financial systems is ripe for abuse.” @timoreilly https://www.oreilly.com/... Darryll Colthrust / @dcolthrust : This breakdown from @timoreilly on the patterns to look for in the current web 3 noise is invaluable. Read it. Take it in. Sleep on it, then read it again. A lot of wisdom is in this article and many jumping off points to learn more. https://www.oreilly.com/... Richard MacManus / @ricmac : Good to see @timoreilly weigh in on Web3 hype. The attached extract is crucial; also note his modus operandi has always been to watch what devs create - and the trouble with Web3 is that nothing convincing has been developed yet. https://www.oreilly.com/... https://twitter.com/... J Herskowitz / @jherskowitz : I found this to be interesting historical context. https://www.oreilly.com/... via @oreillymedia Mike Masnick / @mmasnick : This @timoreilly piece on web3 is really good and mirrors a lot of my thinking as well. https://www.oreilly.com/... Kevin Werbach / @kwerb : “Blockchain developers believe that this time they've found a structural answer to recentralization, but I tend to doubt it.” As usual, @timoreilly is on target in assessing tech trends. He comes out in a similar place to me. https://www.oreilly.com/... Sanjiva Weerawarana / @sanjiva : As usual, a great read from @timoreilly: Why it's too early to get excited about Web3 https://www.oreilly.com/... John Battelle / @johnbattelle : Related: @timoreilly on lessons from previous phases of Web nomenclature/hype bubbles (he knows a thing or two about a thing or two) https://www.oreilly.com/...