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The story behind the story

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Adobe: US consumers spent $10.7B online on Cyber Monday, below expectations and down 1.4% from $10.8B in 2020, as many shoppers returned to physical stores

- Consumers logged online Monday and spent $10.7 billion, marking a 1.4% decrease from year-ago levels, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

CNBC Lauren Thomas

Context & Ripple Effects

Adobe Analytics' final Cyber Monday reading confirms the softness signaled by its earlier $7.1B tally at 9PM ET, following a Black Friday decline from 2020's record. The comparison is significant because 2020 Cyber Monday had still delivered 15.1% year-over-year growth, making 2021 a reversal in the holiday online-spending trajectory.

First-order effects

  • Adobe's $10.7B measurement puts Cyber Monday below both expectations and 2020's $10.8B level, while consumers shift some holiday purchases back to physical stores.
  • Online retail teams face a smaller Cyber Monday sales pool than the prior year, rather than another pandemic-era online-shopping record.

Second-order effects

  • The back-to-back Black Friday and Cyber Monday declines make the holiday weekend less reliable as a source of year-over-year e-commerce growth for retailers planning promotions and inventory around online demand.
  • Physical stores regain relevance in retailers' holiday sales mix as shoppers who had concentrated purchases online in 2020 return to in-person buying.

Third-order effects

  • If holiday spending continues to divide more evenly between stores and websites, retailers will need to treat digital growth as a channel-mix question rather than assume pandemic-level online gains persist.
  • The 2021 pullback appears to be a reset from an unusually strong 2020 benchmark, not a permanent ceiling: Adobe later recorded $11.3B in Cyber Monday spending in 2022.

The trend: Holiday retail is moving from pandemic-driven online concentration toward a more contested mix of e-commerce and physical-store spending.

Discussion

  • @laurenthomas Lauren Thomas on x
    Just in, per Adobe Analytics data: Cyber Monday online sales drop 1.4% from last year to $10.7 billion, falling for the first time ever💻💰 https://www.cnbc.com/...
  • @cnbc @cnbc on x
    Consumers logged online Monday and spent $10.7 billion, marking a 1.4% decrease from year-ago levels, according to data released by Adobe Analytics. https://www.cnbc.com/...
  • @weaponoutfitter @weaponoutfitter on x
    Makes sense, I don't think people are in a very jolly “buy buy buy” consuming mood with the state of the world, economy. High end gun parts and gear pays dividends in the form of capability though 😉 https://www.cnbc.com/...
  • @cortessteve Steve Cortes on x
    #BidenBlueChristmas updates Three revealing data points: 1. Cyber Monday sales fall for first year, ever 2. Online Black Friday sales down vs. 2020 3. In-person Black Friday traffic -28% vs. pre-pandemic 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/...
  • @ritholtz Barry Ritholtz on x
    Reminder: National Retail Federation coined the term “Cyber Monday” in 2005 when people had much slower internet ay home than they did in the office. Today, the term is utterly meaningless https://www.wsj.com/...
  • @ourmaninchicago Our Man In Chicago on x
    It's almost like sending emails proclaiming every day Black Friday and Cyber Monday has an effect. https://twitter.com/...
  • @ron_miller Ron Miller on x
    Wondering if the drop is due to people simply wanting to get out and shop in person because they can. https://twitter.com/...
  • @jaycarney Jay Carney on x
    Big thank you to the countless teams at Amazon that helped make Black Friday and Cyber Monday such a success for customers and our selling partners! https://www.aboutamazon.com/ ...
  • @rjcc Richard Lawler on x
    @Techmeme @annierpalmer If you read Amazon's blog post carefully, you'll notice that it doesn't actually say that the company broke any sales records over Cyber Monday or Black Friday. In 2020 and 2019, Amazon explicitly said that it did. https://twitter.com/...