Estimate: Apple's iOS App Tracking Transparency policy has cost Snap, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube almost $10B in combined ad revenue in H2 2021

Forcing apps to ask for permission to track users for advertising purposes leads to big hit for social media platforms

Financial Times 2021-11-01 Patrick McGee

Context & Ripple Effects

Early coverage framed ATT as a threat to Facebook’s data collection across third-party iOS apps; by July, [[a:968439|low user opt-in rates were already disrupting Facebook advertisers’ targeting and campaign measurement]]. This estimate extends that operational impact across Snap, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube.

The reported H2 revenue hit also foreshadows Meta’s later $10B ATT revenue forecast for 2022, suggesting the change was not a short-lived launch disruption but a sustained constraint on social-ad monetization.

First-order effects

Snap, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube lose advertising revenue as fewer iOS users permit the cross-app tracking used to target and measure ads.
Advertisers on Facebook face weaker customer targeting and campaign measurement immediately, making iOS-driven campaigns less dependable.

Second-order effects

Meta must absorb a larger share of the adjustment because its later ATT forecast alone matches the estimated combined H2 impact, increasing pressure to rebuild ad performance with less iOS tracking data.
Advertisers are pushed to reassess spend across the affected social platforms as comparable targeting and attribution deteriorate.

Third-order effects

If platform privacy controls continue to limit third-party data access, social advertising shifts toward measurement and targeting methods that rely less on cross-app tracking.
Apple’s operating-system policies become a durable source of bargaining power over the economics of app-based advertising, even for large ad platforms.

The trend: Mobile privacy controls are moving ad-tech power away from cross-app tracking and toward the platform that governs user permission and data access.

Discussion

@patrickmcgee_ Patrick McGee on x
*New*: @Apple's privacy settings caused an estimated $9.85bn of revenues to evaporate in the second half of this year at @Snap, @Facebook, @Twitter and @YouTube, as their advertising businesses were shaken by the new rules Average impact on revenue: -12% *Thread* https://twitter.…
@patrickmcgee_ Patrick McGee on x
.@apple, meanwhile, reported a “record” quarter for its advertising business on Thursday, as its services segment beat revenue estimates by $700m to reach $18.3bn. Full story: https://www.ft.com/... @FT
@profcarroll David Carroll on x
Facebook and others set to lose billions to Apple's cross-app tracking disclosure UX. Almost as if people actually do care about their privacy online and express it when given a meaningful choice. #DataRights https://www.ft.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@jendudley Jen Dudley-Nicholson on x
Turns out privacy wasn't dead, it just wasn't an option. https://twitter.com/...
@iansherr Ian Sherr but spooky on x
It's fascinating to me that this is continually framed as the results of Apple's tech, and not people's choices when clicking a button. I wonder how it'd be framed if Apple had just made it an opt-out hidden in the privacy settings. Or if most people had opted in instead. https:/…
@sar_meta_web3 Sar Haribhakti on x
Real victims are not listed here. It's SMBs. FB has been investing in vertical integration from discovery to transactions for years now. They will bounce back very soon https://www.ft.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@privacymatters Privacy Matters on x
Users of Apple devices and products are captured by Apple. Ever tried preventing Apple using data about you to support its ads business or to prevent the display of ads? https://twitter.com/...
@nicholasvinocur Nicholas Vinocur on x
Interesting. So this is what might happen if EU users were given a simple opt out option for data collection on big platforms under the GDPR. In other words, Apple did in one fell swoop what the GDPR has not in 3 years. https://twitter.com/...
@brettwhitmarsh Brett Whitmarsh on x
Engagement has taken a noise dive across platforms https://twitter.com/...
@rustybrick Barry Schwartz on x
That is power - Apple... https://twitter.com/...
@ashleygjovik @ashleygjovik on x
#Apple, meanwhile, reported a record quarter for its advertising business, as its services segment beat revenue estimates by $700m to reach $18.3bn. “Apple has done a great job turning privacy into a PR play, but they wouldn't be doing this if there weren't money in it.” 💰💰💰 http…
@maccaw Alex MacCaw on x
@sar_meta_web3 100%. Apple has taken money from every SMB advertising on Facebook. There is nothing privacy violating about seeing if an ad converted or not.
@patrickmcgee_ Patrick McGee on x
Lost revenues will extend into the next quarters as the advertising groups rebuild using a privacy-centric paradigm. “New tools and frameworks need to be developed from scratch and tested extensively before being deployed to a high number of users,” says @eric_seufert
@chadloder Chad Loder on x
Good. If companies can't make money without digitally stalking you, they deserve to fail. https://twitter.com/...
@efa_oz EFA on x
Governments have known this for years and done nothing much about it. Maybe we should ask them why they have failed to protect our privacy for so long? https://twitter.com/...
@ourielohayon Ouriel on x
it cost them a lot more than that. It cost them losing control https://twitter.com/...
@cameronwilson Meta Cam Wilson on x
This is the rebuttal to the idea that people don't care about privacy. they do! when it's accessible, they'll protect their own privacy. the problem is that our system makes it nearly impossible without a structural shift like Apple stepping in like this https://www.ft.com/...
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on x
One interesting question is the impact this has on Apple's services revenue? Fewer clicked app install ads means fewer apps installed which means fewer whales buying IAPs which Apple gets 30% from. Search ads don't really make up difference since they don't create demand. Hmm.🤔 h…
@pt Parker on x
I wonder what percentage of Apple users know it's in the same business as Google and Facebook. https://twitter.com/...
@antoniogm Antonio García Martínez on x
Advertising is governed by a huge knob with ‘privacy’ on one side knob's range...and ‘competition’ on the other. For some reason, we've decided to crank the knob all the way to the ‘privacy’ side, and are shocked, shocked at the result. https://twitter.com/...
@mayazi Maya Zehavi on x
If you wanted dollar proof as to the power of controlling the OS & privacy. Turns out that selling hardware has built in leverage against competitors who rely on ads for revenues https://twitter.com/...
@psythor James O'Malley on x
Seems bad that Apple is consolidating its control over a major consumer endpoint but on the other hand this is the least sympathetic issue in the world for the other companies to cry about. https://twitter.com/...
@javierpallero Javier Pallero on x
Privacy. This is one of the important steps to get out of engagement-based crappy business models for platforms. https://twitter.com/...
@pt Parker on x
Asking “would you prefer X or Y” will lead to very different behavior than asking “would you like X?” Of course this is Apple trying to screw competitors and ultimately consumers. They designed the dialog exactly to do that. https://twitter.com/...
@jason_kint Jason Kint on x
Love it. And don't be mistaken, @PatrickMcGee_, google also gets a majority of its data from third parties. They're just seeing the offsetting benefit of android being a surveillance monster and holding off their own privacy improvements as long as possible. https://twitter.com/.…
@wholemarsblog Whole Mars Catalog on x
It's striking to see what a huge impact changes to Apple's software can have on their tech industry peers. They claim it's for user privacy, and that's true to some extent, but they're also benefiting from the fact that the rules don't apply to them. https://twitter.com/...
@adamsinger Adam Singer on x
@PatrickMcGee_ ... real losers here sadly are SMBs - large companies, have infinite resource and a laundry list of ways to reach users, small mom and pop shops don't

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