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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Imposition of bitcoin on El Salvador's unwilling population by the increasingly authoritarian ruler Nayib Bukele is testing BTC's promise of financial liberty

As cryptocurrency enters global finance, an experiment in El Salvador could offer clues on whether it will bring a more libertarian economy or greater government control.

New York Times

Context & Ripple Effects

El Salvador made bitcoin legal tender on September 7, 2021, seeding the Chivo wallet rollout with a $30 signup payment, and the early months were rocky enough that many citizens reported their balances vanishing from the state wallet. This NYT piece frames the deeper question: a president consolidating power has made an unwilling population the test case for bitcoin's libertarian pitch.

The arc since has run against the experiment's promoters. A year later El Salvador was heading into a funding squeeze and economic crisis it partly blamed on the adoption, and by early 2024 Bukele was doubling down anyway despite the IMF demanding bitcoin's removal as legal tender, even though Reuters reported 88% of citizens didn't use BTC in 2023.

First-order effects

  • Salvadorans who never opted in are bearing the experiment's costs directly: mandated acceptance, a state-run wallet whose failures hit their savings, and macro fallout from a currency decision none of them voted on.
  • Bukele gets what he wanted either way — a sovereign bet on bitcoin as a hedge against dollar dependence, plus the international attention that comes with being crypto's first national adopter.

Second-order effects

  • The IMF's demand for rollback turns bitcoin policy into leverage over El Salvador's financing: every future loan negotiation now prices in how far the state will retreat from legal-tender status.
  • Other governments watching get a cautionary data point for free — top-down mandates without citizen adoption produce political liability rather than a bitcoin economy, shaping how any would-be copycat structures its own rollout.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, national crypto adoption splits into two models: voluntary, infrastructure-first integration versus authoritarian imposition — and El Salvador's experience suggests only the former survives contact with voters.
  • The episode feeds the broader legitimacy question for crypto itself: when a state weaponizes bitcoin, 'censorship-resistant money' starts looking like just another instrument of state control, which cuts against the asset's core marketing.

The trend: State-level bitcoin adoption is becoming a test of whether crypto serves individual financial freedom or concentrates power, with El Salvador's coercive rollout as the defining negative case.

Discussion

  • @reuters @reuters on x
    ICYMI: A month on from El Salvador's move towards #Bitcoin, the digital currency remains a divisive issue with some residents embracing crypto whilst others remain hesitant to change https://www.reuters.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @steve_hanke Steve Hanke on x
    One month into @nayibbukele's crackpot #Bitcoin experiment, Salvadorans still aren't taking to BTC like ducks to water. 93% of companies still haven't received any payment in BTC, & only 12% of consumers have used BTC to pay. Salvadorans love their dollars https://www.reuters.com…
  • @steve_hanke Steve Hanke on x
    .@nayibbukele is championing #Bitcoin as the currency of the future for El Salvador. He claims that Salvadorans are welcoming the change with open arms. Totally false. Bukele is and remains dangerous and delusional. https://twitter.com/...
  • @ncweaver Nicholas Weaver on x
    The El Salvador cryptocurrency situation is really really bad. And has potential to get a LOT worse. And for all the Bitcoin Bros embracing a dictator, go fuck yourselves and your abandonment of your libertarian ideology because in the end you really only care that Number Go Up h…
  • @reuters @reuters on x
    ICYMI: One month on, El Salvador's #Bitcoin use grows, but headaches persist with some users reporting irregularities with transactions and attempts of stolen identity https://www.reuters.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @dschatsky David Schatsky on x
    In El Salvador, Bitcoin “was imposed on an unwilling population by an increasingly authoritarian ruler using a secretive state-run system...” Asking whether crypto becomes “another tool of control and enrichment for autocrats and corporations.” https://www.nytimes.com/...
  • @georgeselgin George Selgin on x
    An excellent report summing-up the odd and potentially explosive mix of libertarian ideology and authoritarian government that is El Salvador's bitcoin gambit, by @AKurmanaev and @el72champs https://www.nytimes.com/...
  • @parismarx Paris Marx on x
    “According to a poll conducted by El Salvador's chamber of commerce, businessmen, international organizations and 93% of Salvadoran people opposed the adoption of bitcoin.” Do crypto capitalists care what the Salvadoran people think? Absolutely not. https://www.nytimes.com/...
  • @nytben @nytben on x
    So much #Bitcoin talk focuses what it might theoretically do to finance in the future. So it's nice to read an on the ground story from the first country to start using is currency...with very mixed results. https://www.nytimes.com/...
  • @reckless Nilay Patel on x
    Thrilled to see another generation get its “real socialism hasn't been tried” https://www.nytimes.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @marybsheridan Mary Beth Sheridan on x
    What a lead. What a story, about the strange and counter-intuitive Bitcoin experiment in El Salvador. By ⁦@AKurmanaev⁩ ⁦@bavelarr⁩ ⁦@_fredramos⁩ https://www.nytimes.com/...