Facebook says Apple's ATT changes will continue to cause headwinds in Q3 and reveals it under-reported iOS web conversions by 15% on average; stock drops 3%+
Learn about the tools and APIs announced at WWDC Tweets: Patrick Coddou / @soundslikecanoe : I'm getting very annoyed. There are really talented operators behind great businesses that are scared sh!itless right now. And they all think they're alone. Sara Fischer / @sarafischer : 🚨🚨 #BREAKING: @Facebook says that @Apple's new privacy updates are hurting its business, causing headwinds in the 3rd quarter — Also admits to undercounting advertising performance by 15% — Story on @axios: https://www.axios.com/... Patrick Coddou / @soundslikecanoe : iOS 14.5 has wreaked havoc on a lot of small online businesses, and *nobody* is reporting on it or talking about it. NOBODY. Here are some quotes I've gathered from founders over the past few months. Most of these are from 7 and 8 figure, quality businesses. Dare Obasanjo / @carnage4life : Looks like when companies such as Apple make platform changes to make online ads less relevant for “privacy” reasons it ends up harming small businesses who depend on advertising to reach customers. I wonder why no one in the media reported this obvious consequence from iOS 14.5? https://twitter.com/... Patrick Coddou / @soundslikecanoe : “...our overall marketing performance has declined by ~40% starting on Monday, 6/21 and continuing through today (6/28). We are heavily reliant on FB, and the results we're seeing reported in-platform are very, very bad (CPAs skyrocketing up 100%+ what they were a month ago).” Rok Hladnik / @rokhladnik : @grahammudd Brands with higher AOV ($100+) are having a harder time, especially if their purchaser frequency isn't high or perhaps is one of those verticals where you buy the product only once in a lifetime. Jason Grad / @mrjasongrad : this is the same game @facebook has been playing for years remember groups? they lured developers to the platform to build value for users and then changed policies to cut developers out classic. i don't feel bad for fb https://twitter.com/... Andrew Foxwell / @andrewfoxwell : Facebook has publicly said: “We're doing everything we can to reduce under reporting + bring back performance asap.” This is a big deal. Have questions? Reply to Graham. https://twitter.com/... Brockton Conwell / @brocktonconwell : Facebook acknowledges underreporting. • Delayed attribution common (72+ hrs) • Review data in larger windows • Ad Account Consolidation still 🔑 https://twitter.com/... Jason / @jsmith189 : I will say. I don't fully trust ANY tech company with privacy and security. You'd be dumb to. But there's a reason companies hate iOS 15. It has blocked SO much tracking and monitoring and selling of your info. If you've pissed off Zuck, you're doing the right thing. Graham Mudd / @grahammudd : @rokhladnik This makes sense to me. Smaller businesses and those with highly segmented campaigns are also hit harder given conversion thresholds for reporting. Patrick Coddou / @soundslikecanoe : “Nothing is working. We know very well what audiences and creative perform for our brand. We have been doing this for years. We know the problem is on the facebook side.” @sigh_lance : @rokhladnik @grahammudd Ditto. Exactly what we're seeing. One brand: AOV right at $100 with a once every 2-3 year purchase frequency product - major performance hit. Another brand: AOV around $25-30, very minor performance hit and still working well at a decent scale. Paul Thurrott / @thurrott : “Facebook says Apple's ad changes are hurting its business” Good. Alex Kantrowitz / @kantrowitz : @ProdDevJoe ... Hi Joe, free to chat? I am writing about this and would love to include your perspective. DMs open. Thanks! Rok Hladnik / @rokhladnik : @grahammudd Thanks for this update. I must say in past Facebook communication for businesses wasn't really the best. We are in the same boat and the biggest issue right now is the lack or delayed data making any performance wise decision really hard. Joe / @proddevjoe : Went from $100/day fb ad spend to $0 since iOS change. Not sure if @apple meant to kill small business by going after @Facebook but they are sure trying... https://twitter.com/... Dudes Rock Paper Scissors / @tresdessert : Oh so you were profiting from our personal data ? Interesting https://twitter.com/... Florian Litterst / @litterstflorian : “Our estimate is that in aggregate we are underreporting iOS web conversions by approximately 15%” https://www.facebook.com/... Jason Thacker / @jasonthacker : I am fully supportive of increased privacy controls and data protection like that in iOS, but I find it deeply ironic that Apple claims that privacy is a fundamental human right in one country and in another overrides that “right” for access to the Chinese market. https://twitter.com/... See also Mediagazer
Context & Ripple Effects
The ATT fight has been escalating all year: Facebook ran full-page newspaper ads against Apple's iOS changes in December, flagged the coming impact alongside its $25B buyback in January, and told investors at Q1 earnings to expect second-half headwinds once iOS 14.5 rolled out.
What's new here is an admission about Facebook's own plumbing: it under-reported iOS web conversions by roughly 15% on average, meaning advertisers' results looked worse than reality even before Apple's changes bit. Combined with a renewed Q3 headwinds warning and a 3%+ stock drop, this reframes ATT from a policy dispute into a measurement crisis.
First-order effects
- Advertisers buying iOS web traffic from Facebook have been working off conversion numbers understated by about 15% on average, distorting budget decisions made inside Facebook's own tools.
- Facebook's stock falls over 3% as investors digest both the Q3 headwinds warning and evidence its measurement was less reliable than advertised.
Second-order effects
- With Facebook's targeting and reporting degraded, brands face higher effective ad costs, and per the related coverage some are shifting spend toward Google — Alphabet becomes the near-term beneficiary of Apple's changes.
- Apple now controls not just whether tracking happens but how performance gets measured across the web on iOS, giving it leverage over rivals' ad businesses without spending a dollar itself.
Third-order effects
- If platform owners become the de facto arbiters of ad attribution, the mobile ad market splits between walled-garden measurement systems — pushing the industry toward first-party data and on-platform conversion tools rather than cross-app tracking.
- The pattern also raises regulatory stakes: disputes framed as consumer privacy versus ad-targeting economics are drawing antitrust-style scrutiny of who sets the rules for rival business models.
The trend: Mobile advertising is being restructured around platform-controlled privacy and measurement, shifting power from ad networks like Facebook to OS gatekeepers like Apple.