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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Huawei reports Q2 revenue fell 38% YoY to ~$26B, up from a 16.5% drop in Q1 and 11.2% drop in Q4, as US sanctions continue to hurt sales

Revenue declines deepen amid U.S. restrictions on chip supply, pressure on buyers  —  HONG KONGChina's Huawei Technologies Co. reported a 38% fall …

Wall Street Journal Dan Strumpf

Context & Ripple Effects

Huawei’s accelerating quarterly decline became a sustained contraction: subsequent coverage recorded a fourth straight quarter of falling sales, followed by its first annual revenue decline in 2021. The Q2 result therefore marks the point at which chip-supply restrictions were visibly deepening the company’s commercial pressure.

Later reporting shows that revenue stabilization did not restore earnings momentum: Huawei’s 2022 revenue was roughly flat while profit fell sharply. That makes the earlier sales shock relevant as part of a longer adjustment to restricted component access.

First-order effects

  • Huawei’s sales contraction steepens as U.S. restrictions limit chip supply, while its buyers face additional pressure around access to Huawei products.
  • The widening decline from Q4 and Q1 makes the restriction-driven loss of sales more acute for Huawei than a single weak quarter would suggest.

Second-order effects

  • A prolonged sales decline gives China a stronger incentive to reduce reliance on restricted chip-production inputs, consistent with reported efforts to require domestic equipment in new chip capacity.
  • Huawei’s sustained decline raises the commercial stakes for domestic substitution across its supply chain; later reporting found that similarly priced Huawei phones had a meaningful China-made component share.

Third-order effects

  • If export restrictions and China’s substitution policies persist, Chinese device makers and chipmakers will increasingly organize procurement around domestic equipment and components rather than globally interchangeable supply chains.
  • The pattern points to export controls becoming an industrial-structure force: restrictions on one company’s inputs can redirect capital, capacity additions, and supplier qualification toward national supply chains.

The trend: U.S. chip restrictions are accelerating export-control substitution, pushing China’s technology supply chain toward domestically sourced production inputs.

Discussion

  • @isaacstonefish Isaac Stone Fish on x
    Huawei “reported a 38% fall in quarterly revenue Friday, as the damage U.S. sanctions have done to its sales of smartphones and telecommunications equipment worsened. The drop marks the third straight decline in quarterly revenue for Huawei” https://www.wsj.com/...