Report: iPhone 12 line accounted for 63% of US iPhone sales in Q3; the iPhone 12 Pro Max had a 23% share while the iPhone 12 mini had a 5% share
José Adorno / 9to5Mac :
Context & Ripple Effects
This report extends a now well-documented pattern across the iPhone 12 cycle. CIRP data from the launch window showed the mini at just 6% of US sales in October and November, and by Q1 the lineup was already at 61% of US sales with the mini trailing even the SE and XR. The Q3 figures — 63% for the line, 23% for the Pro Max alone versus 5% for the mini — confirm the split is widening rather than correcting.
The historical arc matters here too: the XR took 39% of US sales as a single affordable model in early 2019, while this cycle's share is concentrating at the top of the price band instead.
First-order effects
- The iPhone 12 mini is tracking as the cycle's clear failure in the US, its share eroding from 6% at launch to 5% in Q3 despite being the cheapest 12-series option.
- The Pro Max at 23% is doing outsized revenue work: nearly a quarter of US unit sales coming from the highest-priced model shifts Apple's mix toward premium.
Second-order effects
- A mini-sized successor becomes hard to justify on these numbers; Apple's lineup planning for the next generation faces pressure to drop or reposition the small form factor.
- Rivals read the same signal: if a quarter of US buyers pay for the largest, most expensive iPhone, Android flagships have an opening to push big-screen ultra-premium pricing harder.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the smartphone market structurally splits into a thin low-volume compact niche and a volume-and-profit center at large-screen flagship prices — a trajectory the later Omdia data on the iPhone 14 Pro Max shipping 26.5M units in H1 2023, more than any other model appears to validate.
The trend: US iPhone demand is steadily migrating toward the largest, priciest models each cycle while compact variants shrink toward niche status.