Sources: amid escalating rivalry, neither Google nor Microsoft are keen to renew a recently-expired truce to not use their lobbying firepower against each other
A non-aggression pact forged by their CEOs expired in April, threatening to add fuel to industry's antitrust battles
Bloomberg
Context & Ripple Effects
The expired pact reversed the 2016 agreement to stop taking complaints to regulators, which had followed Microsoft's support for groups pressing for action against Google in Europe and the US. Its lapse matters because the two companies can again treat antitrust advocacy as part of their competitive contest.
First-order effects
Google and Microsoft are no longer constrained by their CEOs' non-aggression arrangement and can deploy their lobbying operations against one another as antitrust battles intensify.
Second-order effects
Regulators and advocacy groups may receive more adversarial claims and evidence from each company's rival, increasing the political pressure around investigations affecting Google and Microsoft.
Third-order effects
The episode points to a less durable model of big-tech détente: bilateral restraint can give way when regulatory outcomes become competitively consequential.
The trend: Antitrust scrutiny is turning corporate lobbying from a defensive compliance function into a more direct arena of rivalry among major technology companies.
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