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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Larry Page's air taxi company Kitty Hawk buys drone software company 3D Robotics, whose co-founder and ex-Wired editor Chris Anderson will become Kitty Hawk COO

Jeremy Bogaisky / Forbes :

Forbes Jeremy Bogaisky

Context & Ripple Effects

Kitty Hawk has spent a decade inside Larry Page's orbit: he was reported to have put over $100M into Zee.Aero while also backing rival Kitty Hawk ([[a:870373]]), the firm signed a certification-track testing agreement with the New Zealand government for autonomous planes ([[a:927461]]), and by late 2019 reporting described deep struggles, including sources suggesting it had ceded control of its self-flying taxi program to Boeing ([[a:948421]]). Buying 3D Robotics adds a flight-autonomy software team to an airframe company that has been searching for a workable product.

The target arrives scarred rather than triumphant: 3D Robotics had already burned through nearly $100M and laid off more than 150 employees as its consumer drone ambitions collapsed ([[a:875606]]). The deal converts a failed consumer-drone bet into an enterprise-style exit — its co-founder, ex-Wired editor Chris Anderson, steps in as Kitty Hawk COO, putting software leadership atop a hardware program whose economics remain unproven.

First-order effects

  • Chris Anderson takes operational control of Kitty Hawk as COO, meaning a software-company builder now runs a Larry Page-backed air-taxi venture whose previous leadership was tied to the Flyer ultralight and the Heaviside aircraft programs.
  • Kitty Hawk absorbs 3D Robotics' drone flight-software capability, giving its Heaviside autonomous takeoff-and-landing push an in-house perception and control stack instead of building one from scratch.

Second-order effects

  • If sources were right that Kitty Hawk had ceded control of its self-flying taxi program to Boeing, an acquired software team changes what Boeing is getting from that arrangement — and strengthens the case for deeper integration or renegotiation.
  • Other eVTOL and drone developers now compete with a Page-funded buyer for scarce flight-autonomy engineers, raising the price of the talent and forcing rivals without a software stack to buy or partner rather than build.

Third-order effects

  • The pattern points toward consolidation of flying-car startups around whoever owns autonomy software, since airframes alone have not survived — and the corpus shows even this combination failed, with Kittyhawk announcing a full wind-down in September 2022 ([[a:983118]]) despite the New Zealand certification track and the software infusion.
  • For regulators running certification programs like New Zealand's, each collapse of a certified-test participant concentrates the burden on fewer, larger players such as Boeing, nudging the industry toward a structure dominated by incumbents rather than venture-backed startups.

The trend: Flying-car ventures are discovering that autonomy software and regulatory access matter more than airframes, and their consolidation is a leading indicator of which players will survive the sector's shakeout.

Discussion

  • @starfire2258 Sean Hollister on x
    now-thats-a-name-I-havent-heard-for-a- long-time-kenobi.gif https://twitter.com/...