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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Square beats in Q1 with revenue of $5.06B, up 266% YoY, with $3.5B in bitcoin revenue, up 11x YoY, gross profit of $964M, up 79% YoY, with $495M from Cash App

MacKenzie Sigalos / CNBC :

CNBC MacKenzie Sigalos

Context & Ripple Effects

Square's bitcoin line has grown from a rounding error into the company's biggest revenue engine: back in August 2018, bitcoin trading brought in just $37M against $385M in adjusted revenue, and even by mid-2020 Cash App's quarterly bitcoin revenue was $875M. The February Q4 report already showed the pattern — $1.76B of bitcoin inside a $3.16B quarter — and Q1 pushes it further: $3.5B of bitcoin revenue against $5.06B total.

That matters because bitcoin trading revenue passes through Cash App at thin margins. The cleaner read on the quarter is gross profit — $964M, up 79% YoY, with $495M of it from Cash App — which shows the underlying payments-and-wallet business growing even faster than the pre-crypto baseline.

First-order effects

  • Square's reported top line is now dominated by bitcoin resale: more than two-thirds of Q1 revenue came from buying and selling bitcoin in Cash App, so headline revenue tracks crypto volumes as much as payments volume.
  • Cash App generates over half of company-wide gross profit ($495M of $964M), confirming the wallet has overtaken the seller business as Square's profit center.

Second-order effects

  • Analysts covering Square have to rebase their models off gross profit rather than revenue, since bitcoin passthrough inflates the top line without proportional economics — the same adjustment the market was already forced into by the Q4 print.
  • Sustained bitcoin demand in Cash App deepens Square's exposure to crypto price swings: user trading appetite, not merchant payment volume, now sets the size of each quarter's revenue beat.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, consumer fintech reporting splits into two stories per company — a gross-revenue number distorted by crypto brokerage and a gross-profit number reflecting real monetization — pushing valuation debates and eventual accounting scrutiny toward how passthrough crypto sales are presented.
  • Square is effectively becoming a bitcoin retail brokerage attached to a payments company, meaning its earnings quality moves with crypto cycles even as the seller ecosystem compounds underneath.

The trend: Square's income statement is being reshaped by Cash App's bitcoin trading, turning gross profit — not revenue — into the metric that reveals the health of its core payments business.

Discussion

  • @kenziesigalos MacKenzie Sigalos on x
    Square reports $3.5 billion in #bitcoin revenue in Q1 BUT bitcoin gross profit ... only $75 million. Details: https://www.cnbc.com/...
  • @thetranscript_ @thetranscript_ on x
    Square Q1 2021: - Earnings and revenues beat. - Total net revenue was $1.55B, exc. bitcoin (+44% Y0Y) - Cash App revenue of $529M, up 139% YoY. - Seller GPV up 144% in April. $SQ https://twitter.com/...
  • @alex @alex on x
    i need to write about thissss https://twitter.com/...
  • @bradmichelson Brad Michelson on x
    Contrary to popular opinions, #bitcoin traders are not price sensitive. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/ ...
  • @mdudas Mike Dudas on x
    pretty clear that @CashApp is gonna beat @GoldmanSachs at this #bitcoin thing https://www.theblockcrypto.com/ ...
  • @mdudas Mike Dudas on x
    this is just gorgeous #bitcoin is the dongle of @square's future https://www.theblockcrypto.com/ ... https://twitter.com/...