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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Facebook reports Q1 revenue of $26.2B, up from $17.7B YoY, MAUs of 2.85B, up 10% YoY, headcount of 60,654, up 26% YoY, avg. ad price up 30% YoY; stock rises ~5%

Investor Relations :

Investor Relations

Context & Ripple Effects

Facebook’s Q1 results extend a multiyear expansion in both audience and advertising: it reported $16.9B in Q2 2019 revenue alongside 2.41B MAUs, after mobile had supplied roughly 91% of its Q1 2018 ad revenue. The current quarter pairs a 2.85B-user base with a 30% increase in average ad price, making monetization—not audience growth alone—the key change.

The company is also continuing to scale its operating base, with headcount reaching 60,654. Later 2021 coverage shows revenue growth remained strong while user growth slowed, including Q2 revenue growth of 56% alongside 7% MAU growth, underscoring the importance of ad yield to the earnings trajectory.

First-order effects

  • Advertisers face a higher average price for Facebook inventory immediately, while Facebook converts its large monthly audience into faster revenue growth.
  • Facebook’s 26% increase in headcount expands the company’s operating capacity as it manages a platform serving 2.85B monthly users.

Second-order effects

  • As audience growth decelerates relative to revenue growth, Facebook’s ad business becomes more dependent on sustaining pricing gains; buyers’ campaign budgets become more sensitive to the value delivered by its inventory.
  • The stock’s rise reflects investor emphasis on revenue and ad-price performance, raising the bar for subsequent quarters to maintain monetization even as user growth moderates.

Third-order effects

  • Facebook’s reporting sequence points to a mature-platform model in which advertising yield and operating scale carry more weight than rapid user additions; Q3’s 35% revenue growth with 6% DAU growth follows that pattern.
  • If ad pricing remains the principal growth lever, the platform’s long-run economics will increasingly hinge on advertiser demand rather than the pace of new audience acquisition.

The trend: Facebook is moving from a growth story led by expanding reach toward one led by extracting more advertising revenue from an already global-scale audience.

Discussion

  • @dylanbyers Dylan Byers on x
    One thing I like about $FB quarterly earnings is it's a reminder to media/watchdog Twitter that there's a lot more to Facebook story than scandals, both real and perceived. All you read about is scandals. It's a very small part of what Menlo Park thinks/worries about day to day.
  • @mikeisaac Rat King on x
    Facebook loves to say that the iOS changes will “only make them stronger”....except in legal financial disclosures to the S.E.C.: “We continue to expect increased ad targeting headwinds in 2021 from regulatory and platform changes, notably the recently-launched iOS 14.5 update”
  • @alexeheath Alex Heath on x
    Takeaway from Facebook earnings: - Its pricing power for ads is increasing dramatically as Apple makes cheap ads less efficient - The business is becoming more efficient as it grows (43% operating margin!) - Non-ad revenue (VR sales) is up 146% https://t.co/...
  • @mattrosoff Matt Rosoff on x
    @modestproposal1 How are you backing that out?
  • @matthewstoller Matt Stoller on x
    Facebook issued an earnings release of a monopolist who can set prices in a market it controls. Its massive 46% revenue growth was “driven by a 30% year-over-year increase in the average price per ad and a 12% increase in the number of ads delivered.” https://t.co/nLxP2VyH8j
  • @crypto_bobby Rob Paone on x
    No mention of BTC or Bitcoin in here FYI https://twitter.com/...
  • @smartleverage Leverage on x
    $FB Reporte Q1 -Revenue $26.17B ($23.72B est) -Advertising revenue $25.44B ($23.27B est) -EPS $3.30 ($2.61 est) Daily Active Users (DAU): 1.88B (1.86B est) +8% YoY Monthly Active Users (MAU): 2.85B (2.83B est) +10% YoY -Caja: $64.22B https://investor.fb.com/...
  • @ivan_brussels Ivan Maljkovic on x
    Facebook Q1 2021 earnings $FB • EPS: $3.30 (Estimate: $2.37) • Revenue: $26.17B (Estimate: $23.67B) • MAU Facebook core app 2.85 billion, +10% YoY • 3.45 billion monthly users across its family of apps, +15% YoY https://investor.fb.com/...
  • @mgsiegler M.G. Siegler on x
    Facebook is very upset that everyone seems to hate them these days... https://twitter.com/...
  • @rustybrick Barry Schwartz on x
    Whoa Facebook reported a 46% increase in ad revenue and almost 100% increase in net income! https://twitter.com/...
  • @can @can on x
    when you think monopoly is just a board game https://twitter.com/...
  • @modestproposal1 Modest Proposal on x
    The implied growth rate at Instagram is so absurd it's not really believable. if someone else does this calc, please double check. This is a $30B business likely growing around 70-80% https://twitter.com/...
  • @modestproposal1 Modest Proposal on x
    @MattRosoff FB “leaked” Instas 2019 revenues of $20B+ after Google broke out YouTube. From there you can use previous disclosures to do some math to determine approximate trajectory. This is rough estimate, before this most recent Q raised estimates across the board. https://twit…
  • @fboversight @fboversight on x
    Sheryl Sandberg says they are working “...to mitigate the impact of the iOS 14.5 update.”
  • @ashk4n Ashkan Soltani on x
    Telling that @Facebook's @sherylsandberg cites opportunities in @w3c when discussing their ‘regulatory roadmap’ on todays Q1 earnings call. #Bigtech has long known they can leverage standards groups to benefit their business goals. https://lumen.webcasts.com/...
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    CFO works in short message about “headwinds” and transatlantic data transfer issues (Schrems II). This is all CYA and we've seen Facebook's history of downplaying risk so these mentions mean something big. /3 https://twitter.com/...
  • @eric_seufert Eric Seufert on x
    Regarding FB earnings: CPM and ad load increases make sense given that 1) FB wanted to capitalize on COVID engagement that will wane 2H 2021 and 2) advertisers pulled forward 2021 spend before ATT launched. My sense is that both tailwinds remain in effect in Q2
  • @solarcycle_25 Ilsa on x
    Hope Tim Apple kicks his ass. https://twitter.com/...
  • @swiftstories Mike Swift on x
    Zuck's first shot at @apple on @Facebook #earnings call. With #AR and #VR “we're pioneering a much more open model of app store than what's currently available on phones today.”
  • @munster_gene Gene Munster on x
    5) I've been skeptical on Facebook's long-term innovation potential. Zuckerberg's comments on the call regarding the company's focus on AR/VR gave me pause on my criticism, given I believe $FB will be one of two key players in this space, with Apple being the other with the lead.
  • @swodinsky Shoshana Wodinsky on x
    @DylanByers sorry, the more accurate version is “earnings calls are a refreshing reminder that this scandal-laden company is also, somehow, more wealthy than god”
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    Sandberg's answer on timeline of “headwinds” is irresponsible. They're allegedly breaking the law in Europe, CPRA takes effect 1/1/22, and outside of Apple, Facebook likely knows the most on the rollout of 14.5. It's their most valuable platform. Her answer is bogus. /7 https://t…
  • @richlightshed Rich Greenfield on x
    All that fear, angst, anxiety and stress over #IDFA and the clear takeaway is the power of first party, on-platform data mitigates the risk pretty significantly listening to Facebook Q1 2021 earnings call https://twitter.com/...
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    Zuckerberg *tries* to get in on the action by trying to answer a concern about Facebook's being beholden to other companies' platforms, taking a shot at Apple and then pivoting to AR/VR, small business and a seamless experiences where they've got all of your data. 🤦🏻‍♂ ️ /5 https…
  • @swodinsky Shoshana Wodinsky on x
    @DylanByers so the scandals don't matter because they're,,,,,,,,,..., a wealthy monopoly?
  • @alexeheath Alex Heath on x
    Zuckerberg opening the earnings call by talking about AR/VR. Said it accounts for the vast majority of R&D budget growth. R&D spend was $5 billion in Q1 alone. “We are going to keep investing heavily” in “building the next computing platform.” Investors still don't get this.
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    If Facebook sends out a memo, it's unnecessary to publish it...my two cents. Regardless, this is inverted propaganda for ad clients. Apple's change makes it harder for FB to collect most of its data, increases fatigue across its interest harvesting so it has less ad transactions.…
  • @patrickcoffee Patrick Coffee on x
    Memo from Facebook to agencies and advertisers details how Apple's privacy changes will affect their campaigns from me and @LaurenJohnson https://www.businessinsider.com/ ...
  • @slpng_giants @slpng_giants on x
    @DylanByers Yes, of course. They crush their quarterly earnings and everything, but it's kind of small potatoes when you consider that their scandals can, like, topple democracy and cause genocide.
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    Full context for those clips. Sandberg did her normal mom and pop song mixing in vaccine heartstrings. India is a bit much considering FB suppressed Modi protesting today. Again gaslights to confuse FB's tracking and surveillance business model as simply “personalized ads.” /2 ht…
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    78 seconds. Listen closely. Apple has kneecapped Facebook pushing out an update fo 1+ BIL devices. Remember: 1) in no way does this update stop personalized ads, it stops surveillance 2) a majority of Facebook's data is collected when users aren't on its services (surveillance). …
  • @sarthakgh Sar Haribhakti on x
    It is both true that iOS changes will be a boon for them (bcs of first party data, its where people are) & that it is a risk Ad tracking is not just about FB. Its publishers too (including the NYT which tracks me everywhere). It hurts them them but less compared to others. https:…
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    Sandberg gets good question about share shift from their loss of data, tries to again gaslight this impacts all personalized ads (it doesn't), ignoring local media options available then, probably realizing she can't say they'll be better off than everyone, notes platforms! /6 ht…
  • @profcarroll David Carroll on x
    I do fear Sheryl means it's time to raid the Cabinet of Patented Dystopias. https://patents.justia.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    Analysts, to their credit, did ask some questions about iOS. Here is first CFO answer: Pivots through small business effects and then an attempt at broader antitrust scrutiny for Apple trying to claim privacy and “open internet” crown which is 😂 coming from closed Facebook. /4 ht…
  • @jason_kint Jason Kint on x
    Super well covered on Facebook / Apple drama. Love an academic is now using my #KneecapFacebook characterization which analysts are sleeping on but I've open sources. Only one clarification point from me. 1/3 https://www.theguardian.com/ ...
  • @claresduffy Clare Duffy on x
    During today's $FB earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg announced a new feature for WhatsApp Business - and signaled how the company is working to monetize the messaging app. https://www.cnn.com/...
  • @cnnbusiness @cnnbusiness on x
    Since Facebook paid a whopping $19 billion to buy WhatsApp in 2014, investors have wondered how it will cash in on the acquisition, especially after the company walked back a controversial plan to sell ads on the app https://www.cnn.com/...