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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: ISPs in the US are seeing delays as long as 60 weeks, more than double previous waits, when ordering internet routers, due to the global chip shortage

- Router-makers including Zyxel report much longer lead times  — Chip shortage effects cascade into multiple product markets

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

Router wait times are the latest stop in a shortage that has been stretching lead times across the chip industry for a year: Bloomberg's March overview of industry bottlenecks already showed Broadcom's lead times more than doubling to 22.2 weeks from 12.2 weeks in early 2020. Now US ISPs ordering internet routers face delays of up to 60 weeks — more than double prior waits — with makers like Zyxel confirming the squeeze.

The story matters because home broadband is the choke point between the shortage and consumers: when ISPs cannot get customer-premises equipment, provisioning new lines stalls no matter how much network capacity sits behind it.

First-order effects

  • US ISPs face up to 60-week waits on router orders, directly slowing new-subscriber activations and equipment swaps for existing customers.
  • Zyxel and fellow router-makers must ration allocation across ISP customers rather than fill orders first-come-first-served, shifting bargaining power to whichever buyer holds long-term supply commitments.

Second-order effects

  • ISPs squeezed on routers will compete for scarce chips against every other device category drawing on the same foundry capacity — the same dynamic behind the lottery-like chip sourcing experts described later in 2021.
  • Equipment vendors can pass component costs and lead-time risk into ISP contracts, pushing broadband operators to lock multi-quarter purchase agreements and hold buffer inventory instead of lean stock.

Third-order effects

  • If lead times keep lengthening — they hit 25.8 weeks by December 2021 per Bloomberg's tracking, and chip tool makers were warning clients of 18-month waits for fab equipment by April 2022 — the shortage becomes self-perpetuating, since capacity cannot expand until tools arrive.
  • Sustained equipment scarcity pushes broadband hardware toward longer design cycles, fewer supplier options, and contracted-allocation purchasing, structurally favoring large ISPs and vendors over smaller ones.

The trend: The global chip shortage is cascading down the electronics stack from chips to finished networking gear, turning lead times themselves into the binding constraint on broadband deployment.

Discussion

  • @6d6f636869 Takashi Mochizuki on x
    Published: shortage coming up next is home internet routers, as many broadband providers began to face up to 60 weeks for their ordered routers to arrive. Yes, that's more than a year. With @debbywuintaipei and @TW_Seal. https://www.bloomberg.com/...