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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Ahead of its April 14 direct listing, Coinbase reports a record quarter, with estimated profits of $730M-$800M in Q1 on revenue of ~$1.8B and 56M verified users

Coinbase announced its 2021 first quarter earnings on Tuesday, revealing that the crypto giant made a profit of between $730 million …

Decrypt Jeff John Roberts

Context & Ripple Effects

Coinbase’s S-1 had already documented a turn from a 2019 loss to $322M in 2020 profit on $1.2B in revenue. The new quarterly estimate sharply raises the earnings reference point immediately before its direct listing.

Later coverage reinforces how quickly that reference point could move: Coinbase reported $2.23B in Q2 revenue and $1.6B in net profit after a volatile period for cryptocurrency trading.

First-order effects

  • The Q1 update gives participants assessing Coinbase’s April 14 direct listing a current earnings and user-scale benchmark well above the annual figures in its S-1.
  • Coinbase enters the listing with a profitability narrative rather than solely a growth narrative, anchored by estimated Q1 profit of $730M-$800M.

Second-order effects

  • The gap between Coinbase’s 2020 earnings and its Q1 estimate makes quarterly performance, rather than prior-year results, the more consequential benchmark for how the company is assessed after listing.
  • Coinbase’s subsequent Q2 results show that the earnings benchmark can reset rapidly alongside volatile cryptocurrency trading, raising the importance of recurring disclosure for market participants.

Third-order effects

  • If public-market assessment continues to track Coinbase through sharp quarterly swings, crypto platforms will be valued less like steady subscription businesses and more on their ability to translate trading conditions into durable profitability.
  • The direct listing begins a longer shift toward public reporting as the mechanism through which crypto-market cycles become visible in exchange-company financials.

The trend: Crypto exchanges are moving into public-market scrutiny, where earnings disclosures expose how closely business performance moves with trading conditions.

Discussion

  • @paulvigna Paul Vigna on x
    Coinbase earned more in the first 3 months of 2021, more than twice as much actually, than it did in all of 2020. #bitcoin https://www.wsj.com/...
  • @sytaylor Simon Taylor on x
    One point eight billion dollars in a quarter For a crypto wallet 🤯 https://twitter.com/...
  • @wsj @wsj on x
    Coinbase profited handsomely off bitcoin's first-quarter rally, bringing in more earnings and revenue in the first three months of 2021 than it did in all of 2020 https://www.wsj.com/...
  • @cryptogodjohn Johnny on x
    8 days for $BNB & $FTT to play catch up. https://twitter.com/...
  • @jeffjohnroberts Jeff Roberts on x
    CEO @brian_armstrong describes Coinbase's potential market as “anyone with a smartphone” Likens crypto right now to “dawn of e-commerce” in late 90s #Coinbaseearnings
  • @pt Parker on x
    One reason centralized exchanges can make so much money is that they can execute transactions off chain and avoid high fees, making them very attractive to active traders. Want to be your own bank? OK, how does $18/transaction sound. Freedom ain't free, my dude. https://twitter.c…
  • @apompliano @apompliano on x
    Lots of people love to hate on Coinbase for various reasons, but there is no denying what they have built. Coinbase is the standard for on-boarding new users into the alternative financial system. Love them or hate them, they are essential to this industry that we all love.
  • @tylerscrypto Tyler Strejilevich on x
    I remember a few years ago people spreading so much hate about #Coinbase The fees, the customer support, the crashing during pumps/dumps etc. (All TRUE to be honest LOL) But I think this is going to be absolutely huge for #Bitcoin and Crypto mainstream growth https://twitter.com/…
  • @ethereumjesus Ethereum Jesus on x
    People complain about Ethereum gas fees but Coinbase fees are the real crime. https://www.google.com/...
  • @mdudas Mike Dudas on x
    We all knew it was gonna be a blowout. But wow, it was an absolute blowout quarter. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/ ...
  • @trengriffin Tren Griffin on x
    Monthly transacting users (MTUs) of 6.1 million, up from 2.8 million at the end of 2020. https://techcrunch.com/... “Over the last 2 years, we have seen average annual net revenue per MTU range between USD 34 - USD 45 per month” https://cryptonews.com/...
  • @jeffjohnroberts Jeff Roberts on x
    I'm going to update this with details from Coinbase's 430pm ET earnings call. Will be interesting to see how @brian_armstrong who prefers Reddit forums to formal events—handles life as a public CEO. https://decrypt.co/...
  • @shaughnessy119 Tom Shaughnessy on x
    Geez. @coinbase 1Q21 results are in - 56M Users - 6.1M MAUs - $223 billion in assets , representing 11.3% crypto asset market share - Trading Volume of $335 billion - $1.8 billion in rev - Net Income of approximately $730 million to $800 million https://investor.coinbase.com/ ...