Global smartwatch shipments rose 1.5% YoY in 2020, with Apple Watch shipments up 19% YoY, Huawei's up 26% YoY, and Fitbit shipments down 4% YoY
- In Q4 2020, the shipments decreased slightly YoY due to a fresh wave of COVID-19. — However, Apple managed to expand its market share and remains firmly at the forefront.
Context & Ripple Effects
The 2020 result extends a market pattern already visible in Apple's 2019 share gain: Apple was widening its lead even as Fitbit lost share. The difference now is that total annual shipment growth slowed to 1.5% and Q4 contracted slightly amid a renewed COVID-19 wave, making Apple’s 19% growth and Huawei’s 26% growth decisive for market momentum.
The immediate follow-through was strong: Apple’s 50% Q1 2021 shipment growth increased its market share by three percentage points, showing that the 2020 disruption did not dislodge the leader.
First-order effects
- Apple strengthens its leading smartwatch position by growing shipments far faster than the overall market during a year in which Q4 demand softened.
- Huawei gains shipment momentum alongside Apple, while Fitbit’s 4% annual decline leaves it losing volume in a market that still grew.
Second-order effects
- Fitbit faces a tougher competitive position because Apple and Huawei expanded during the same constrained-demand period, raising the hurdle for regaining shipment growth.
- Apple’s share expansion makes subsequent market growth more dependent on the leader’s product cycle; its Q1 2021 acceleration reinforced that concentration.
Third-order effects
- The market is becoming more unevenly distributed among brands: the later record shows Apple and Huawei continuing to post divergent results from Samsung, rather than broad-based vendor growth.
- If shipment growth remains concentrated in a small set of vendors, smartwatch competition will increasingly turn on retaining share through demand downturns, not merely participating in category expansion.
The trend: Smartwatch shipments are shifting from broad category growth toward a more concentrated contest in which Apple and Huawei can gain even when total demand is weak.