Q&A with mobile marketing analyst Eric Seufert on the Facebook-Apple conflict, Apple's real motives for iOS privacy changes, and potential harm to businesses
I've given up, it just looks like a poisoned equilibrium to me Tom Lee / @tjl : The other piece that feels like it needs development is the lamentation about removing a tool small businesses can use to compete. I am sure there are examples! But if you allow yourself even a little paternalism you can admit that IAP games are bad for people and gaming itself. Matthew Yglesias / @mattyglesias : @tjl Untargeted ads are way better! Keith Petri / @keithepetri : Nothing comes close to the clarity this interview provides on the nuanced implications of $APPL, $GOOG and $FB's recent shifts in policies on cookies, MAIDs, attribution, and more. 👏 @eric_seufert https://twitter.com/... Eric Seufert / @eric_seufert : In an alternate universe...(1/X) https://twitter.com/...
StratecheryBen Thompson
Context & Ripple Effects
Seufert's Q&A lands mid-conflict: Facebook had already launched an anti-Apple campaign framing ATT as a small-business killer while critics argued it had locked SMBs into surveillance-powered advertising in the first place. The interview is the analyst's attempt to separate Apple's stated privacy motives from its commercial ones.
The coverage that follows validates the stakes: analysts flagged that limiting ad tracking could push developers toward paid apps and subscriptions, feeding Apple's IAP commission revenue, while publishers like Zynga responded by building their own ad tech stacks.
First-order effects
Small businesses that relied on Facebook's targeted ads lose their primary iOS acquisition channel, forcing a choice between untargeted reach and shifting budgets to platforms with first-party data.
Second-order effects
Facebook absorbs measurable damage — it later warned of 'continued headwinds' from ATT even as Q3 ad revenue grew 33% YoY to $28.28B — while publishers respond by acquiring or building in-house ad tech, creating first-party walled gardens outside Apple's control (Zynga being the template).
Third-order effects
If the pattern holds, mobile advertising fragments into competing first-party data silos owned by platforms rather than shared identifiers, and privacy policy becomes a pricing lever — Apple pairing tracking limits with an expanding App Store ads business (now reaching the Today homepage and app pages) shows the incentive structure clearly.
The trend: Platform owners are using privacy controls not just to restrict tracking but to restructure the mobile ad supply chain around their own first-party assets.
I spoke with @benthompson from @stratechery two days ago about ATT, Apple vs. Facebook, and the mechanics of user-centric advertising. I enjoyed our conversation immensely, and Ben has graciously made this interview free-to-share https://stratechery.com/...
@mrahmey
Maurice Rahmey on x
This was an excellent must read interview on the impact Apple's privacy updates will have on the ad ecosystem. https://twitter.com/...
@eric_seufert
Eric Seufert on x
6/ I simply see no way that Google could not expose the ATT prompt. It's unthinkable that they'd remove all data collection mechanisms from their apps, or even walk away from opted-in data.
@richlightshed
Rich Greenfield on x
$SNAP Jeremi Gorman says @snapchat admires Apple's focus to protect consumer privacy Says Snap has been working hard with Apple to utilize alternatives post IDFA including building own systems leveraging first-party data Snap is clearly not worried https://twitter.com/...
@id_aa_carmack
John Carmack on x
This is a really good interview, with some insight into the machinery that led to the billion dollar mobile games. https://twitter.com/...
@palmerluckey
Palmer Luckey on x
Apple is well positioned to launch unbeatable OS-level or hardware-level adblocking tools for all their customers. It would be one of the most disruptive moves of all time.
@eric_seufert
Eric Seufert on x
5/ My belief is that Google's original comms were incorrect / mis-stated and they *will* expose the prompt. Google admits as much in this webinar they published Feb 2: they'll model conversion data from “users who consent to ATT” https://www.youtube.com/...
@tjl
Tom Lee on x
particularly fascinating Stratechery today, about Apple's coming changes to the ad landscape https://stratechery.com/... but some real head-scratchers in here, too. do people really prefer targeted mobile ads to TV ads? (they hate ads in general, of course) https://twitter.com/..…
@modestproposal1
Modest Proposal on x
This is a very good interview. You may agree in principle with notions of greater privacy, but it's interesting to try and understand what Apple is doing, how self serving it appears to be, and what the ramifications are beyond a pissing match with Facebook. https://twitter.com/.…
@damianburns
Damian Burns on x
'I think Apple underestimates the degree to which Apple's growth in services revenue and the growth in the App Store is because of Facebook' Excellent interview with mobile marketing expert @eric_seufert via @stratechery https://stratechery.com/...
@jrichlive
@jrichlive on x
@sethjberman @modestproposal1 The PR and messaging by 🍎 has been ninja level. Very few people understand the implications.
@modestproposal1
Modest Proposal on x
This point on the impact on DTC brands and potentially Shopify is interesting. But also, something Ben had written about before, which is that this is just going to drive Facebook, and users, towards shopping on Facebook/instagram. https://twitter.com/...
@eric_seufert
Eric Seufert on x
2/ This kind of wording isn't actually foreign to iOS https://twitter.com/...
@tjl
Tom Lee on x
Ditto dropshippers, algorithmically generated t-shirts, lasercut knicknacks, and much of the rest of it. I sort of admire those who stand back from this and earnestly say “if people want it, it's great!”—I've given up, it just looks like a poisoned equilibrium to me
@tjl
Tom Lee on x
The other piece that feels like it needs development is the lamentation about removing a tool small businesses can use to compete. I am sure there are examples! But if you allow yourself even a little paternalism you can admit that IAP games are bad for people and gaming itself.
@mattyglesias
Matthew Yglesias on x
@tjl Untargeted ads are way better!
@keithepetri
Keith Petri on x
Nothing comes close to the clarity this interview provides on the nuanced implications of $APPL, $GOOG and $FB's recent shifts in policies on cookies, MAIDs, attribution, and more. 👏 @eric_seufert https://twitter.com/...
@eric_seufert
Eric Seufert on x
In an alternate universe...(1/X) https://twitter.com/...