Kuo says there will be no improvements to main iPhone camera lens in 2021 and 2022, does not change forecasts for upgrades for ultrawide and telephoto lenses
Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo previously predicted significant improvements to two of the three iPhone lenses in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's November forecasts had Apple upgrading two of the three rear cameras in short order: an f/1.8 6P autofocus ultra-wide on the Pro models (iPhone 13 ultra-wide upgrade) and a periscope telephoto sourced for the 2022 phone (periscope telephoto supplier lineup). This note amends the third leg of that roadmap — the main wide lens now stays put through 2022.
First-order effects
- Apple's 2021–2022 camera differentiation concentrates entirely on the ultra-wide and telephoto modules, leaving the main lens as a spec that no longer separates yearly models.
- Suppliers counting on main-lens redesign orders in those cycles lose them, while the ultra-wide track gains — Kuo later added a new lens supplier there specifically for low-light performance (new ultra-wide lens supplier).
Second-order effects
- Lens-supplier competition shifts to the modules still upgrading: ultra-wide optics and the periscope telephoto become the battleground for Apple's camera bill-of-materials share.
- A frozen main sensor raises the bar for what the eventual refresh must deliver, which is consistent with Kuo's later forecast of a variable-aperture wide-angle on the high-end iPhone 18 with Sunny Optical as primary shutter supplier (variable-aperture wide-angle for iPhone 18).
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, flagship smartphone main cameras move to multi-year upgrade cadences with step-function jumps (aperture mechanics, new suppliers) rather than incremental annual tweaks, reshaping how camera-component vendors plan capacity around Apple's roadmap.
The trend: iPhone camera roadmaps are rotating differentiation across individual lenses year by year instead of upgrading all three uniformly, stretching main-sensor refreshes into multi-year jumps.