GroupM expects marketers to spend $110.1B on digital ads in the US this year, accounting for more than half of the year's total ad spend for the first time
This closes a forecast arc GroupM itself opened: in June it predicted digital would overtake traditional media spend in 2020 for the first time ([[a:955035]]), and now its year-end estimate puts US digital at $110.1B — past the halfway mark of total ad spend. The milestone was long telegraphed: eMarketer called the digital-over-traditional crossover for 2019 ([[a:938737]]), and GroupM flagged China crossing toward majority-Internet share back in 2016 ([[a:866790]]).
First-order effects
US marketers reallocating budgets now face a market where digital is no longer the 'emerging' line item but the majority allocation, making GroupM's $110.1B figure the new planning baseline for 2021 media buying.
Second-order effects
Traditional media sellers lose their pricing argument of 'digital is supplementary' — with digital above 50%, legacy outlets compete for the shrinking remainder and must bundle or discount against platforms that already command most of the growth.
Third-order effects
Once digital crosses the majority threshold, measurement and accountability standards set by large platforms tend to become the de facto industry standard for all ad spend, accelerating consolidation around a handful of sellers — a pattern the later IAB data on top publishers capturing nearly four-fifths of spend confirms.
The trend: US advertising is completing its shift from digital-as-minority-channel to digital-majority market, with forecasting firms' crossover calls (China 2016, US 2019-2020) marking the stages.
Digital ads just became the majority of all ad spending. And three companies control nearly two-thirds of digital $$. https://www.wsj.com/... https://twitter.com/...
It's a shame half of our members of Congress don't really even know how to use @Facebook @Google @amazon. How will they push back on the boundaries of monopoly and infringement of privacy? https://twitter.com/...
“3 years ago, digital advertising accounted for just 1/3 of all US ad spending ... about the same size as newspapers, radio, magazines and local TV combined. As of 2020, these four categories' combined share of the US advertising market has shrunk to 21%.” https://www.wsj.com/...…
Feel like it's time to move away from the digital vs tv ad spend discussion, especially when digital is shorthand for platforms; where there is so much fraud in digital, and how the platforms ‘grade their own homework.’ etc etc https://www.wsj.com/...
Not surprising (the rich get richer and the big get bigger): Over half of U.S. advertising spending is set to go to digital platforms this year, as the coronavirus pandemic causes shifts in marketers' strategy https://www.wsj.com/... via @WSJ
More than half of U.S. advertising spending this year is going to digital platforms such as Google, Facebook and Amazon. Meanwhile, ad spending at newspapers, radio, magazines and local TV continues to shrink. https://www.wsj.com/... via @WSJ
Pretty striking graphic in @VranicaWSJ's great piece today on digital advertising's meteoric rise: Digital ads grew from a quarter of total U.S. ad spending in 2015 to a third in 2017 to more than half this year. https://www.wsj.com/... https://twitter.com/...
Reddit says its ad business is growing as the company discloses a “daily active user” metric for the first time https://www.wsj.com/... https://twitter.com/...