Kuo: shipments of Apple's mmWave-enabled 5G iPhones could be several million units lower than expected this year and next, due to the impact of the pandemic
Apple's upcoming iPhone 12 models will all include 5G support, and several rumors have suggested that some if not all the new iPhones coming …
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's 2019 roadmap called for three 2020 iPhones with 5G on the high-end 5.4-inch and 6.7-inch models, with Apple's own modem not expected until 2022 or 2023 — meaning this launch runs on purchased modems and a split between faster short-range mmWave and broader sub-6GHz coverage. The pandemic has already bent that plan twice: a 10% cut to Q1 shipment forecasts in February as Apple shut China operations, and flagship production pushed back about a month in April.
Today's note narrows the slice rather than the whole launch: it lands the same day Bloomberg reported Apple is building ~75M 5G iPhones for the year, so Kuo is effectively carving several million units out of the mmWave-enabled portion of that build, this year and next. The 5G launch proceeds; its most premium radio variant is the part that shrinks.
First-order effects
- Apple's mmWave-enabled 5G iPhone shipments come in several million units below plan for this year and next, concentrating the launch's volume on sub-6GHz models instead of the top-tier radio configuration.
- The shortfall lands inside the ~75M-unit 5G iPhone build reported the same day, trimming the high end of that production plan rather than forcing a total ramp-down.
Second-order effects
- With fewer mmWave devices in users' hands, the differentiating pitch for the 5.4-inch and 6.7-inch flagship models shifts from mmWave speed toward the broader 5G coverage the sub-6GHz models already offer.
- A two-year shortfall in the premium tier pressures the economics of the mmWave variant ahead of Apple's planned in-house modem in 2022-2023, raising the stakes for that transition to restore margin and configuration control.
Third-order effects
- If pandemic-suppressed demand for the mmWave tier persists, the mmWave-versus-sub-6GHz split could harden into a lasting segmentation — a flagship radio reserved for markets and carriers that justify it — through at least Apple's first in-house modem generation.
- The episode extends the pattern from February's Q1 cut and April's production slip: pandemic disruption is now reshaping not just when Apple ships but which configurations it ships, a demand-side filter layered on top of the supply chain.
The trend: The pandemic is trimming Apple's 5G iPhone ramp at the premium mmWave tier first, stretching the sub-6GHz-versus-mmWave split out until Apple's own modem arrives.