Despite smartphone sales in China declining 17% YoY in Q2, Huawei grew 14%, capturing 46% of the market, as Apple grew 32%, becoming the fastest growing OEM
- Huawei captured a massive 60% share of the 5G smartphone market — Huawei reached its highest ever share in China capturing 46% of sales volumes.
Context & Ripple Effects
This is the second time Counterpoint has captured this exact shape: back in Q2 2018, the market fell 7% while Huawei's share climbed from 20% to 26%, and in Q2 2020 the pattern repeats at larger scale — a 17% market contraction with Huawei reaching its highest-ever 46% share and taking 60% of 5G volumes. Huawei has consistently been the counter-cyclical player in China, growing while the market shrinks.
The surprise in this quarter is Apple, which grew 32% against that 17% decline to become the fastest-growing OEM — premium demand proving resilient even as the mass market collapsed. That resilience did not hold: Apple later fell 19.1% in Q1 2024 and 18.2% in Q4 2024, while Huawei's post-Mate 60 rebound up 37% in Q3 2023 and 41% shipment growth in Q2 2024 restored its counter-cyclical position.
First-order effects
- Huawei enters the 5G upgrade cycle with a commanding position — 60% of 5G sales in a market where 5G is the main replacement driver — while every rival competes for the shrinking 4G remainder.
- Apple's 32% growth shows its China demand is driven by premium upgraders rather than market volume, insulating it from the 17% contraction in the quarter.
Second-order effects
- Vivo, Honor and the other mid-tier OEMs are squeezed from both ends: Huawei absorbs share across price bands while Apple pulls the premium tier, forcing them to compete harder in the segments neither leader prioritizes.
- Huawei's 46% peak share sets a benchmark competitors must plan against — its later swings, from Apple taking the 2023 annual top spot to Huawei's 2024 resurgence, show how quickly the #1 position in China changes hands.
Third-order effects
- China's smartphone market is consolidating into a barbell — one dominant domestic champion plus a premium import — with the middle tier structurally eroded each time the market contracts.
- The repeated pattern of decline-and-consolidation (2018, 2020, 2023, 2024) suggests share in China is won in downturns: the OEM that holds channel and 5G momentum through a contraction emerges with a step-change in share.
The trend: China's smartphone market contracts in cycles while share consolidates toward Huawei and Apple at the extremes, repeatedly squeezing out the mid-tier.