Tech went from interesting to a crucial part of society in a decade, with events in 2016 polarizing the conversation, causing a rush for easy regulatory answers
Technology was a small industry until very recently. It was exciting and interesting, and it was on lots of magazine covers …
Benedict Evans
Context & Ripple Effects
Written in mid-2020, Benedict Evans's essay is the hinge between two other arguments in this coverage: the earlier observation that enthusiasm about startups has curdled into cynicism, and his later claim that software has faded into the background like electricity or cars. The essay supplies the causal bridge: once tech stopped being a magazine-cover curiosity and became load-bearing infrastructure, its failures stopped being product problems and started being political ones.
The defining moments of the 2010s that the New York Times gathered from Zuckerberg, Snowden, and Schiller map directly onto the polarization Evans dates to 2016 — the same decade-end retrospectives from Vox record the aftermath as antitrust investigations, consumer protests, and tough IPOs. The essay matters because it reframes those symptoms as one event: society noticing that tech was no longer optional.
First-order effects
Regulators get a mandate they lacked when tech was small: the rush for 'easy regulatory answers' lands on the few large platforms that now dominate a stagnant consumer market, while the thriving enterprise side draws less heat.
Startups feel it immediately — the tough-IPO environment recorded at decade's end reflects buyers pricing political risk into consumer-facing companies, not just financials.
Second-order effects
The industry's internal mood shifts with its external standing: the cynicism inside the tech community is both cause and consequence of losing the benefit of the doubt, making it harder to rally users or talent behind new products.
Big companies respond by behaving less like insurgents and more like incumbents defending differentiation on conventional grounds, since 'being a tech company' no longer differentiates anything.
Third-order effects
If the pattern holds, tech completes the lifecycle Evans sketches for electricity and cars: a strategic-institution transition in which the sector trades cultural excitement for permanent regulatory oversight, and policy becomes a standing input to product decisions rather than an occasional crisis response.
The trend: Technology is completing the transition from novel industry to regulated societal infrastructure, with the post-2016 regulatory turn as the inflection point.
Great explanation why technology must (and will be) regulated. This is already happening. In 2020s the responsibility of smart technology policy is huge. This needs people with versatile skills & knowledge. Where to find them? #GDPR #CCPA https://www.ben-evans.com/... https://twi…
This is a really insightful write-up about the pent up need to regulate technology, and also the complexities and tradeoffs involved. Worth a read. https://www.ben-evans.com/...
On tech and regulation by @benedictevans A borderless Internet + software's zero marginal cost one-size-fit-all nature are in tension with state sovereignty. I'm almost sure Evans not being American explains his alertness tot his point. https://www.ben-evans.com/... https://twitt…
Regulating technology https://www.ben-evans.com/... “[Dominant share] lends itself to a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy: these companies have gained big market shares at the same time as the problems emerged, so that must be the cause of the problem.” // A @benedictevans classi…
Crisp, illuminating read on unpacking the ambiguous phrase “regulating tech” - which encompasses (very often) divergent policies on content moderation, privacy, antitrust, and the works. https://twitter.com/...
A new essay: regulating technology. We regulate lots of things, from food to airlines, and now, we're going to regulate tech. But that means global platforms collide with local regulators, and lots of complexity. This will probably be expensive. https://www.ben-evans.com/...
Increasing regulation will be the new normal in tech. And with it come complexity, tradeoffs, and clashes between conflicting values & jurisdictions. https://www.ben-evans.com/...
Two long articles that pair well: On the future of the internets (Bush was right! More than one): https://stratechery.com/... And on the regulation of tech: https://www.ben-evans.com/... Both are super well written and real eye openers about the shifting tides of change.
@benedictevans wrote a great review of the complexity of tech regulation. I like the maritime law analogy - the web today has nation states battling, pirates raiding, multinationals competing, explorers, slave traders - it's not a simple anti-trust issue https://www.ben-evans.com…