Sources: FTC's antitrust probe of Facebook will probably roll into next year when there may be a new president as FTC looks into its acquisition of Giphy
Cecilia Kang / New York Times : Tweets: @tofdaj , @catschocolates , and @nytimestech Tweets: @tofdaj : Giphy acquisition getting a thorough look by regulator. Less about this case and more CYA by FTC after not taking IG seriously $FB https://twitter.com/... @catschocolates : Anti-trust probes often include several rounds of document requests, and interviews will take time to finish, indicating the FTC is not near the end of its investigation. https://thehill.com/... @nytimestech : Nearly a year ago, the chairman of the Federal Trade Commission predicted his agency would wrap up an antitrust investigation of Facebook by the presidential election. That goal seems virtually impossible now. https://www.nytimes.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The FTC has been building toward this moment for a year: it secured rights to the Facebook probe in mid-2019 as part of a deal letting the DOJ lead on Google rights to begin a potential anti-trust probe, and Chairman Joe Simons publicly promised to finish before the 2020 election while warning that WhatsApp-Instagram integration would make an eventual breakup harder intends to complete the probe before the election.
This report marks the slip of that deadline: multiple rounds of document requests and interviews remain outstanding, and the just-closed Giphy acquisition is now inside the review's scope. The trajectory held anyway — within months the agency was preparing a possible lawsuit against Facebook by year-end preparing a possible antitrust lawsuit by year-end.
First-order effects
- Facebook's newly announced Giphy acquisition sits under active antitrust review with no near-term resolution, extending deal risk on an asset meant to plug into Instagram and Messenger.
- Chairman Simons' stated pre-election completion target is effectively abandoned, shifting the probe's political timing onto whoever leads the FTC next year.
Second-order effects
- Every large platform now prices longer regulatory timelines into small tuck-in acquisitions like Giphy — diligence and integration plans have to survive a multi-year document-request cycle.
- The FTC's visible thoroughness functions as reputational repair after its handling of earlier Facebook matters, including the internal memo downplaying Cambridge Analytica fault undisclosed memo clearing Facebook over Cambridge Analytica.
Third-order effects
- Serial acquirers of nascent rivals become standing targets: if the pattern holds, even sub-scale purchases like Giphy get folded into broad monopolization cases rather than reviewed in isolation.
- Antitrust outcomes at the FTC increasingly decouple from electoral calendars, making multi-year investigation arcs — spanning administrations — the default for major platform cases.
The trend: Big Tech antitrust reviews are stretching from single-deal checks into multi-year, administration-spanning investigations where every acquisition becomes evidence in a broader monopolization case.