eMarketer: US consumers to spend $710B online in 2020, up 18% YoY, with ecommerce's share of the retail market growing to a record 14.5%
Dave Lee / Financial Times : Tweets: @jrichlive , @_mrherbert , @neilretail , and @sub8u Tweets: Jeff Richards / @jrichlive : US consumers will spend >$100B more on ecommerce this year than last year (hint: it's not all going to Amazon) 🚀 https://www.ft.com/... via @financialtimes Ryan Herbert / @_mrherbert : Have shopping habits changed for good? Almost two-thirds more new stores were created using Shopify in the six weeks to April 24 than in the previous six-week period. Or, once we emerge from this Covid crisis, will we go back to the high street? #BusEdUK https://amp.ft.com/... Neil Saunders / @neilretail : Retail tech is drawing lockdown dollars, but that doesn't mean all physical stores are doomed. I spoke with the Financial Times about the role shops (and technology) will play in the emerging retail landscape. https://www.ft.com/... Subrahmanyam Kvj / @sub8u : The pandemic, but as a shot in the arm for ecommerce! “Almost two-thirds more new stores were created using Shopify in the six weeks to April 24 than in the previous six-week period” https://www.ft.com/... https://twitter.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
This July 2020 eMarketer forecast lands mid-surge: weeks earlier, e-commerce stocks were soaring on the thesis that pandemic behavior would stick, and Shopify reported almost two-thirds more new stores created in the six weeks to April 24 than in the previous six weeks — small merchants racing online alongside the big platforms.
The $710B projection, with ecommerce hitting a record 14.5% of US retail, quantifies that rush; Jeff Richards' framing that the $100B-plus of incremental spend is 'not all going to Amazon' points to the breadth of beneficiaries beyond the incumbent.
First-order effects
- Amazon absorbs a large share of the >$100B in new online spending — its US retail business was later estimated to have grown 39% YoY in 2020 — but Shopify's near-two-thirds jump in new store creation shows independent merchants capturing a real slice too.
Second-order effects
- Physical retail loses ground at a record pace as ecommerce takes 14.5% of the market, pressuring high-street chains and landlords just as Neil Saunders and others question whether shoppers return once Covid recedes.
- Rival retailers without mature online operations are forced into costly digital catch-up during the same demand shock, competing for fulfillment capacity against Amazon and Shopify-powered merchants.
Third-order effects
- Year-end data showed 2020 ecommerce growth landing above 30%, well past this 18% forecast — an acceleration eMarketer itself confirmed — suggesting the pull-forward permanently reset the baseline rather than borrowing from 2021.
- Whether the share gain holds is the open structural question: by early 2022, data showed ecommerce's share of US retail falling back toward pre-pandemic levels as in-store sales recovered, meaning the durable legacy may be higher absolute online spending rather than a permanently higher share.
The trend: The pandemic compressed years of US ecommerce adoption into 2020, but the subsequent retreat of ecommerce's retail share shows the lasting shift is in absolute spending habits more than market share.