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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Tech ideas like MOOCs, 3D printing, and smart thermometers, which were mostly dismissed as overhyped or unworkable, are getting another look during the pandemic

MOOCs, 3D printers, and smart thermometers are having another moment  —  ight years ago this month, Udacity CEO Sebastian … Tweets: @medium , @ozm , @dlberes , and @dlberes Tweets: @medium : Eight years ago, massive, open, online courses (MOOCs) were predicted to be the future of education. That never really worked... until now, when online learning is the only option. http://read.medium.com/sacrbxq OneZero / @ozm : “At a time when so much isn't working, it's nice to see that a few things that never really worked before, finally — sort of — do.” — @WillOremus http://read.medium.com/aBRJqnf Damon Beres / @dlberes : I adore this story by @WillOremus. Everything old is new again — often the case in this industry! — and there's reason to thing the pandemic will be used to justify the resurrection of tech that should have stayed buried https://onezero.medium.com/... Damon Beres / @dlberes : It was particularly interesting to me that Will was able to pinpoint a specific moment in time (~2012) where so many of these concepts (consumer 3D printing, MOOCs, internet balloons) first seized the public imagination, only to be pushed aside later https://onezero.medium.com/... https://twitter.com/...

OneZero Will Oremus

Context & Ripple Effects

Eight years after MOOCs were written off as the future of education that never arrived, the pandemic has flipped the script: with classrooms closed, online learning stopped being an alternative and became the only option. The revival was measurable within weeks — Coursera added 10 million new users between mid-March and mid-May, seven times its prior-year pace — part of a broader wave in which tech-enabled behaviors once considered fringe went mainstream almost overnight.

The same pattern extends beyond education to 3D printing and smart thermometers, tools dismissed as gimmicks that suddenly had jobs to do. But the coverage also carries a caution: analysts argue platforms like Byju's and Yuanfudao represent innovation in test-prep delivery rather than learning outcomes, suggesting the second chance comes with scrutiny the first hype cycle never faced.

First-order effects

  • Online course providers like Coursera and Udacity absorb a demand surge they could never generate on their own, with Udacity's education bookings up 120% year-over-year as remote learning becomes mandatory rather than optional.
  • Smart thermometer makers and 3D printer manufacturers shift from consumer novelties to practical tools for screening and distributed manufacturing during lockdowns.

Second-order effects

  • Udacity's response shows where the money actually is: a pivot to enterprise services and cost restructuring that took the company to profitability, signaling that B2B training — not consumer MOOCs — may be the durable business the first hype cycle missed.
  • Incumbent education institutions and hardware incumbents face forced adaptation, as digital-first rivals lock in users at seven times normal acquisition pace.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, technologies get judged by demonstrated utility in crisis rather than demo-day promise — a re-rating dynamic echoed by reports that tech companies are already shifting from 'gee-whiz' projects toward products that make money.
  • The MOOC redemption arc also sets up the next disappointment risk: when the forcing function ends, retention of pandemic-acquired users becomes the test of whether this revival was structural or circumstantial.

The trend: Crises are acting as adoption accelerators for previously dismissed technologies, forcing the industry to re-evaluate 'failed' ideas on utility rather than hype.

Discussion

  • @medium @medium on x
    Eight years ago, massive, open, online courses (MOOCs) were predicted to be the future of education. That never really worked... until now, when online learning is the only option. http://read.medium.com/sacrbxq
  • @ozm OneZero on x
    “At a time when so much isn't working, it's nice to see that a few things that never really worked before, finally — sort of — do.” — @WillOremus http://read.medium.com/aBRJqnf
  • @dlberes Damon Beres on x
    I adore this story by @WillOremus. Everything old is new again — often the case in this industry! — and there's reason to thing the pandemic will be used to justify the resurrection of tech that should have stayed buried https://onezero.medium.com/...
  • @dlberes Damon Beres on x
    It was particularly interesting to me that Will was able to pinpoint a specific moment in time (~2012) where so many of these concepts (consumer 3D printing, MOOCs, internet balloons) first seized the public imagination, only to be pushed aside later https://onezero.medium.com/..…