Podtrac: podcast downloads in the US have fallen ~10% and total unique visitors are down ~20% since the start of March, with true crime podcasts down the most
It seems everyone just wants the news, on TV and online, not a true crime podcast. — Since early March, when concerns around … Tweets: @abeerchoubey , @adamwiener , @brentsower , @corytv , @eslafleur , @natathescribe , @caseynewton , and @eshap See also Mediagazer Tweets: Abeer Choubey / @abeerchoubey : Hmmm...seems like the popular observation that @naval also tweeted about last year is true - “Audio is preferred while moving around. Reading while static.” Staying at home has people consuming more visuals and reading stuff than listening to podcasts. https://twitter.com/... @adamwiener : Was waiting for this. Not surprising. I listen mostly on the subway while commuting and can say my own listening is down. Meanwhile, TV and streaming video numbers are way up. #StayAtHome https://twitter.com/... Brent Sower / @brentsower : No commute = way less time for podcasts. More time for reading. I'm finding most podcasts don't draw me in when I have other options. https://twitter.com/... Cory Johnson / @corytv : This flies in the face of the surge in running. Interesting. #Podcasts https://twitter.com/... Elizabeth Sanders Lafleur / @eslafleur : Yep. I was listening like crazy when I had a commute. https://twitter.com/... Vagabond Dude / @natathescribe : And this is the problem with tracking podcast numbers. It's not necessarily a one size fits all thing. I know the @QueenCityPN downloads have doubled since this. It might not be the big guys that are doing well, but the localized stuff is thriving. https://twitter.com/... Casey Newton / @caseynewton : I do 99 percent of my podcast listening walking around the city. Haven't figured out a way to listen to them at home yet — wondering if others are feeling the same way. https://twitter.com/... @eshap : If you needed proof that #podcasts are for commuting... When commuting disappears, so do the downloads. https://wwd.com/... https://twitter.com/... See also Mediagazer
Context & Ripple Effects
Podcasting entered 2020 on an expansion story: a [[a:938935|Chartable survey had found roughly 24% of US adults listening daily or several times a week]], and by mid-2019 Blubrry counted over 700,000 active shows, prompting the first serious 'peak podcast' debate (2,000-3,000 new launches every month). Growth assumptions were built on habitual, often mobile listening.
Podtrac's March numbers are the first hard evidence that the habit breaks when movement does: downloads off ~10% and unique visitors off ~20% in weeks, with true crime — a genre built for commutes and solo time — falling furthest. Weeks later, [[a:954257|Stitcher's pandemic update confirmed the shape of the shift: commute-time listening dipped while lunchtime rose]].
First-order effects
- Ad buyers pricing against download counts face a shrinking, shifting inventory pool overnight, and true crime producers lose the largest share of their audience right as upfront-style commitments come due.
- Networks and publishers whose schedules assumed steady mobile listening must reprogram toward at-home dayparts, where Stitcher's data shows attention actually moved.
Second-order effects
- Measurement firms like Podtrac gain outsized leverage: with downloads volatile, advertisers will lean harder on verified, time-of-day-aware numbers before renewing rates.
- In a market already saturated enough to spark 'peak podcast' worries, a demand shock hits mid-tier shows hardest, accelerating consolidation of ad dollars toward top-ranked news and talk programs.
Third-order effects
- If listening stays anchored to the home rather than the commute, podcast economics rebalance around genres and dayparts suited to stationary consumption — a structural test for the crowded field later described as one where competition has made almost everything harder.
- Recurring demand shocks push the industry toward more flexible ad models (dynamic insertion, shorter commitments) because fixed download-based pricing cannot absorb swings of this size.
The trend: Podcast consumption is tethered to mobility, so each disruption that keeps audiences home reshuffles which genres thrive and how audio advertising gets priced.