For Evans' audience of investors and operators, the analytical unit changes immediately: adoption curves are saturated, so diligence shifts to usage patterns, emerging tech, and which of GAFA captures the next layer of value.
The remaining addressable market shrinks to coverage gaps rather than device gaps — putting the unconnected billions out of reach of ordinary tower economics.
Second-order effects
With terrestrial subscriber growth decelerating, carriers and handset makers are pushed toward satellite direct-to-device partnerships to serve the ~350M without broadband coverage, turning a niche capability into a competitive differentiator.
Developing-world smartphone services — the 'second mobile revolution' sketched in earlier coverage — become the growth story incumbents must underwrite, since mature markets offer only share-shifting, not expansion.
Third-order effects
If saturation holds, the industry's structure tilts from land-grab to contestation: platform power, regulatory scrutiny of GAFA, and coverage obligations dominate policy agendas the way rollout targets did in the 2010s.
Connectivity becomes assumed infrastructure, so differentiation migrates up the stack to AI and services running on top of it — the pattern Evans flagged when mobile computing merged with AI back in 2016.
The trend: Global connectivity is completing its build-out, moving the tech industry's center of gravity from tracking adoption to competing over usage, services, and the satellite-served last mile.
Definitely dig into @benedictevans presentation on what comes after everyone has a smartphone. If you don't believe me that it is good check out the tweets compiled on techmeme. https://www.techmeme.com/...
The world has 5.5 billion adults. 5 billion have a phone. 4 billion have a smartphone. We've barely begun to grasp the (imho, mostly positive) consequences. Via the must-see @benedictevans presentation: https://www.ben-evans.com/... https://twitter.com/...
Still playing with ways to post a deck online. Linkedin bought Slideshare and killed it. Last year I posted a video of the slides with a voice-over, but that seemed too controlling - there was no ‘next slide’ button. This year: the images, plus a PDF. https://www.ben-evans.com/..…
This is an excellent and thought-provoking presentation from @benedictevans, covering where we are, and what might be next when it comes to tech. Do read, and while there, subscribe to his excellent newsletter! https://www.ben-evans.com/... https://twitter.com/...
People like to chant “break them up” about big tech but that simplistic solution doesn't address key problems • bad people using/misusing online services (e.g. election meddling) • platforms dominating companies that use them (e.g. App Store) • privacy & data collection https://t…
Fantastic presentation on big tech trends for 2020s • Is there a next tech platform that'll be more ubiquitous than smartphone? IoT, AR, drones been hyped but won't be. • Tech company different from tech enabled ones. Now everyone is online, where are opportunities for latter? ht…
@maetherial Sure, let's enable ‘data portability’. let's make it really easy for you to export all the data that Facebook has about you - except that's what Cambridge analytica used. So no, it's not easy. it's complicated and there are fundamental trade-offs
.@benedictevans Tech in 2020 deck is both fascinating and a model of clear PPT design. Also: 175 online mattress companies?! https://www.ben-evans.com/... https://twitter.com/...
There are 5.5bn people 15+ in the world and 4bn smartphones: @benedictevans via @mrianleslie's newsletter https://www.ben-evans.com/... https://twitter.com/...
“4bn people have a smartphone; we connected everyone and wonder what the Next Big Thing is, but meanwhile, connecting everyone means we connected all the problems. Tech is becoming a regulated industry, but we don't really know what it means.” https://www.ben-evans.com/...
This presentation on tech trends has some amazing data and chuck full of opportunities. Worth the time investment of reading the pdf. https://static1.squarespace.com/ ...
Every year I do a big macro presentation. This year, ‘Standing on the shoulders of giants’; we connected everyone (!), and wonder what's next, but meanwhile, connecting everyone means we connected all the problems. Tech is becoming a regulated industry https://www.ben-evans.com/.…
Monumental piece of work by Ben Evans, though simple to read and understand. He touches s-curves suggesting the next paradigm shift will be in how technology will inject itself everywhere in society and drive the next wave of regulation. Open points abound https://www.ben-evans.c…
Wow. Tour de force from @benedictevans. 360 perspective on economics of big tech and policy challenges. All antitrusters concerned about echo chambers should read this https://twitter.com/...
Really enjoyed this presentation by @benedictevans - good provocation on some of the policy and market issues around AI, tech in China, and content moderation. https://www.ben-evans.com/...
New presentation from Benedict Evans: “ ‘Standing on the shoulders of giants’ looks at what it means that 4bn people have a smartphone; we connected everyone, and now we wonder what the Next Big Thing is” https://www.ben-evans.com/... Two important (IMHO) slides below : https://t…