A look at gallium nitride, a compound that can replace silicon in chips and is key to miniaturizing 5G tech; China controls 95% of gallium's global supply
South China Morning Post : Tweets: @scmpnews Tweets: @scmpnews : China tightens grip on wonder metal gallium as #Huawei works on promising applications beyond 5G https://www.scmp.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
When SCMP examined gallium nitride in 2019, the pitch was technical: GaN can replace silicon in chips and shrink 5G hardware, with Huawei already working on applications beyond 5G. The structural caveat was supply — China controlled 95% of the world's gallium.
The intervening coverage shows that caveat becoming the story. China's 2024 curbs on gallium and germanium shipments roughly doubled European prices within a year, gallium hit $595 per kilogram in December, its highest since 2011, and [[a:882732|Japanese officials and executives now warn the curbs threaten global electronics supply chains]]. Meanwhile Infineon's 300mm gallium nitride wafers, producing 2.3x more chips than 200mm, show Western fabs scaling the very technology that depends on the constrained metal.
First-order effects
- Chipmakers adopting GaN — Infineon foremost with its 300mm wafers — now buy a compound semiconductor whose raw-material input has doubled in price in Europe and hit an eleven-year high globally.
- Huawei's GaN roadmap beyond 5G sits inside its home country's supply control, giving it raw-material security that Western GaN producers must now procure against export restrictions.
Second-order effects
- Japan's warning that the curbs threaten electronics supply chains signals import-dependent manufacturers pressing governments for stockpiles and alternative sourcing rather than absorbing the price rise.
- Infineon's 2.3x-per-wafer efficiency gain doubles as a cost hedge: squeezing more chips from each scarce kilogram of gallium becomes a competitive weapon against rivals still on 200mm lines.
Third-order effects
- If the 2019 concentration warning keeps converting into 2024-25 export controls, critical chip minerals become a standing lever of statecraft, pushing GaN adoption decisions from cost-driven to security-driven.
- A durable China share near 95% would make Western GaN scale-up contingent on non-Chinese gallium supply or recycling — an input constraint that could cap the technology's silicon-replacement pace regardless of fab readiness.
The trend: Chipmaking's critical inputs are becoming instruments of export control, with China's gallium dominance converting a 2019 supply-concentration warning into 2020s pricing and policy power.