By 2023, Uber Eats may own 25% of the global food delivery industry worth $191B, but both DoorDash and GrubHub make more sales, and DoorDash is growing fastest
Investor sentiment in Uber is rapidly sinking. Since last week's initial public offering, the company's stock has nosedived …
Context & Ripple Effects
Back in February, Uber executives Jason Droege and Dara Khosrowshahi were pitching Uber Eats' rise from 3% of US food delivery in 2016 to 24% in 2018 as the company's growth engine (Eats' climb from 3% to 24% of the US market). This Fortune piece complicates that pitch: even if Uber Eats reaches a projected 25% of a $191B global market by 2023, DoorDash and GrubHub already out-sell it today, and DoorDash is growing fastest.
The timing matters because Uber's stock has nosedived since its IPO, stripping away the patience that once funded Eats' expansion. Within weeks, Second Measure data showed DoorDash overtaking Grubhub in monthly US sales, and within a year Uber was reportedly moving to buy its way back into relevance.
First-order effects
- Uber enters its post-IPO period with its most-cited growth business ranked behind two rivals in actual sales, while its sinking stock narrows its room to keep subsidizing market-share gains.
- GrubHub, freshly passed on growth trajectory by DoorDash, faces pressure on two fronts at once: the fastest-growing competitor above it and a cash-rich Uber below it.
Second-order effects
- The sales gap pushes Uber toward consolidation rather than organic catch-up — culminating in its reported offer to acquire Grubhub, which sent Grubhub's stock up more than 24%.
- DoorDash's lead, built on a suburban focus and SoftBank backing, forces Uber Eats and Grubhub to compete on subsidy-heavy promotions in exactly the geographies where DoorDash over-invested early.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, US food delivery consolidates from four national players toward two or three scaled platforms, with capital access — not restaurant or diner loyalty — deciding who survives.
- Public-market investors repricing Uber after its IPO marks a broader shift: delivery platforms get judged on unit economics and defensible share, ending the era when raw order growth alone justified losses.
The trend: Food delivery is consolidating around capital-backed scale leaders, with IPO-era investor discipline accelerating the shakeout among Uber Eats, DoorDash, and GrubHub.