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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Uber reports Q4 revenue of $3B, up 24% YoY, gross bookings of $14.2B, up 37% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA losses of $842M, up 88% YoY and 60% QoQ

last valued at $77 B, which is more than Goldman Sachs (!) — saw its revenue grow just 2.3% last quarter. That is not a great number for a ‘growth’ company that lost $3.3 billion last year https://www.wsj.com/... @markets : Uber's revenue growth slowed and losses persisted in the fourth quarter, casting a possible shadow over the ride-hailing giant as it prepares for a public offering this year http://www.bloomberg.com/... @alex : the co was damn close to flat/neg growth in Q4, inclusive of Eats; does that mean that ridesharing shrank in Q4? very confusing. Jon Erlichman / @jonerlichman : Uber's annual revenue: 2018: $11.3 billion 2017: $7.5 billion 2016: $6.5 billion 2015: $2.0 billion 2014: $495 million 2013: $104 million 2012: $21 million Source: company, estimates Eric Newcomer / @ericnewcomer : Capturing Uber's losses is challenging. Adjusted numbers tend to undersell the amount of money out the door. But the GAAP numbers take credit for selling to Grab. Without a huge tax accounting windfall Uber would have lost $1.2 billion in Q4 https://www.bloomberg.com/... Shira Ovide / @shiraovide : For comparison Amazon has 20x Uber's revenue, and Amazon's 4Q growth rate was 20%. https://twitter.com/... Eric Newcomer / @ericnewcomer : Uber's growth slowdown is the big story from the latest financials. From Q3 to Q4 revenue only grew 2 percent. Year over year Q4 revenue grew 25 percent down from 38 percent the quarter before

Axios Kia Kokalitcheva

Context & Ripple Effects

Uber's Q4 2018 print lands at the worst possible moment for the company: weeks before a planned IPO at a $77B valuation built on years of steep losses. The trajectory in its own disclosures points one way — Q4 2016 net revenue was still growing 74% quarter-over-quarter (per its 2016 numbers), Q3 2018 showed a $939M net loss on 38% revenue growth (the prior quarter's report), and now Q4 growth has decelerated to 24% YoY while the adjusted EBITDA loss widened 60% sequentially.

First-order effects

  • Uber heads into its IPO roadshow with a harder story to tell: a $77B last private valuation against 24% revenue growth and an $842M quarterly adjusted EBITDA loss — bankers and IPO-bound investors now have to price deceleration, not just scale.
  • The report immediately raises the question analysts flagged on the numbers: whether core ridesharing shrank in Q4 once Eats is stripped out, which would undercut the 'growth company' framing entirely.

Second-order effects

  • Uber Eats gets promoted from side bet to the growth engine of the IPO narrative — a pattern that later hardened when Eats bookings grew 52% while rides gross bookings fell 5% in Q1 2020 (the pandemic-quarter report) — pulling capital and management attention toward food delivery.
  • Rival ride-hailing and delivery players face the same forced choice Uber does: keep subsidizing bookings to defend growth ahead of their own listings, or show a path to profitability and concede market share.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, the late-2010s template of private valuations set on hypergrowth gives way to public-market discipline: companies like Uber get judged on adjusted EBITDA trajectories and segment-level unit economics rather than top-line momentum alone.
  • The deceleration-plus-losses profile pressures the whole class of venture-backed unicorns approaching listings to disclose segment economics earlier, since Uber's own numbers show bookings growth (37%) can mask a shrinking core business.

The trend: Ride-hailing's private-market growth story is colliding with public-market profitability demands, with Uber's decelerating core rides business pushing the company to reposition around delivery.