A look at the state of crypto at the end of 2018 and a list of questions to consider as the ecosystem evolves in 2019 and beyond
Kyle Samani / Multicoin Capital :
Context & Ripple Effects
Multicoin Capital closes out 2018 with a questions-first retrospective rather than predictions — a notable choice given that Arjun Balaji's piece days later framed the same year as the start of a crypto recession with experts pivoting to adoption and usage. Framing the downturn as open questions instead of calls let the firm set an agenda without betting its credibility on price recovery.
The format proved durable: Multicoin followed up five months later with its own broad-trends thesis on open finance and Web3, and by 2023 a16z had turned the annual state-of-crypto essay into a data-backed franchise with its State of Crypto 2023 report distinguishing market cycles from product cycles.
First-order effects
- Portfolio founders and LPs reading Multicoin get a due-diligence checklist for 2019 capital allocation during a drawdown, shifting the firm's influence from deal flow to narrative-setting.
- Kyle Samani positions Multicoin as a thought leader at exactly the moment when peers are calling 2018 the start of a crypto recession, competing to define what 'adoption and usage' should mean.
Second-order effects
- Rival funds respond in kind — Balaji's retrospective within roughly a week shows year-end becoming a competitive publishing window where VCs bid to own the industry's self-assessment.
- The question-list format pressures founders to answer adoption-and-usage metrics rather than token-price narratives in fundraising conversations through 2019.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, annual state-of-crypto essays become institutionalized research products — culminating in a16z's index-based report separating market from product cycles — giving large funds a recurring channel to shape how regulators, LPs, and media read the industry.
- The shift from price-focused predictions to usage-focused questions marks the moment crypto VC discourse reorients around product fundamentals, a frame that persists into later coverage of regulation and bankruptcies.
The trend: Crypto venture firms are institutionalizing the annual state-of-the-industry essay as a narrative-setting instrument that survives market cycles.