Sources: Bird plans to raise at its current $2B valuation and Lime at $2B-3B, below their initial asks, amid tougher-than-expected business conditions
Why do people keep throwing electric scooters … Tweets: Jack Nicas / @jacknicas : Just spotted John fishing scooters out of Lake Merritt with a grappling hook. He got 12 today; Bird pays a small fee for each. pic.twitter.com/ew1W5MInZz Bill Gurley / @bgurley : One more issue that falls in the “obvious in hindsight” category. The business is remarkably seasonal. Looking at 3rd-party credit card data, overall US weekly sales are down 35-40% for both companies in a few weeks. Austin down 60%+, colder Portland and St Louis 78-92%. http://twitter.com/... Rolfe Winkler / @rolfewinkler : For businesses, the bloom is off the rose, esp in SF where vandalism rampant. via @eliotwb/@GregBensinger https://www.wsj.com/... Chamath Palihapitiya / @chamath : One of the simplest, hardest yet most useful rules to learn if you want to be a GOAT investor:"Don't confuse the valuation of a company with the value of a company." http://twitter.com/... Eliot Brown / @eliotwb : The basics of problems in scooterland: -rampant vandalism -scooters built for consumer use falling apart before they have recouped the purchase price -and the most concerning (and least surprising): robust competition is pushing down revenue per scooter http://www.wsj.com/... Christen O'Brien / @christenobrien : Amazing that I've heard no one except @bgurley bring up weather/seasons as a business model problem for scooter companies. A very big problem, indeed. http://twitter.com/... Brian Fitzgerald / @bryfitz : My god. The part of this where the CEO realizes how much vandalism is a problem ... http://www.wsj.com/... Shira Ovide / @shiraovide : Wow, losing maybe one-third of an expected scooter fleet to vandalism/theft with *two weeks* is very extreme. https://www.wsj.com/... pic.twitter.com/PBU1zXMTZw Chris Anderson / @chr1sa : New profession: scooter fisherman https://twitter.com/... Katie Roof / @katie_roof : Instead of growth rounds, Bird and Lime are expected to raise rounds from insiders at lower valuations than initially hoped for. Scoop with @eliotwb @GregBensinger http://www.wsj.com/... @wsj : Electric scooters looked like a new investment gold rush, but they're just too tempting for vandals and thieves https://on.wsj.com/2RLFHGn Greg Bensinger / @gregbensinger : Scooters are highly susceptible to vandalism and breakdowns — cooling investor enthusiasm @WSJ w/ @eliotwb @Katie_Roof https://www.wsj.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The valuation ladder here was built fast: Bird raised $150M led by Sequoia at a $1B valuation in May, then within weeks sought ~$200M more at a $2B valuation — triple its price from just three months earlier. Now both Bird and Lime are coming back to market below their asks, with Bird pinned at its existing $2B mark.
What changed is the operating picture: Bill Gurley's third-party credit-card data shows US weekly sales down 35-40% for both companies in weeks, with cold-weather cities like Portland and St Louis down 78-92%, layered on top of reported vandalism, theft, and rapid scooter breakdowns.
First-order effects
- Bird and Lime must accept flat-to-lower marks than they initially sought — Bird holding at $2B rather than stepping up, Lime settling inside a $2B-$3B band below its ask — trading valuation for access to capital as winter demand collapses.
- Investors gain leverage: Gurley's sales data gives them hard evidence of seasonality that neither company's growth story had priced in.
Second-order effects
- The $2B mark becomes a ceiling that later money prices against: within a month, Bird's $300M extension led by Fidelity closes at that same $2B pre-money rather than reopening higher.
- Hardware economics move to the center of diligence — vandalism, theft, and breakdown rates mean each scooter's replacement cost now weighs on every subsequent round's math.
Third-order effects
- Private marks set during peak season prove fragile once public markets can reprice them: Bird's eventual SPAC merger at $2.3B barely clears this round's valuation, and by 2022 it trades as a penny stock with a market cap under $160M.
- If the pattern holds, shared-micromobility consolidates around operators who can survive seasonal revenue swings and fleet-durability costs, with capital concentrating in fewer, later-stage players rather than chasing each new city launch.
The trend: Scooter-sharing's private valuations were set against peak-season growth and proved unsupportable once seasonality, vandalism, and hardware wear entered the numbers — a template for how fast-risen consumer hardware startups get repriced.