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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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In 2018, at least $46.8B has been spent on acquiring open source companies, including IBM's $34B Red Hat purchase and Salesforce's $6.5B MuleSoft buy

Astasia Myers / Memory Leak : Tweets: @astasiamyers Tweets: Astasia Myers / @astasiamyers : In September I called 2018 the biggest year for OSS businesses ever. The fall acquisitions of @redhat and @heptio; @elastic's strong IPO; and unicorn up rounds for @hashicorp, @GitLab, and @Jfrog further suggest it has been a breakout year for #OSS. https://medium.com/...

Memory Leak Astasia Myers

Context & Ripple Effects

Astasia Myers called 2018 the biggest year for open source businesses back in September, citing Elastic's strong IPO and unicorn up rounds for HashiCorp, GitLab, and JFrog — the year-end tally of at least $46.8B in acquisitions confirms the call. The two anchor deals are IBM's attempt to recreate its '90s playbook by buying Red Hat, and Salesforce's $6.5B purchase of MuleSoft.

What makes the number matter is who is writing the checks: established enterprise software vendors paying record prices for companies whose product was free to download. The related coverage shows this was not a one-off — big VC raises and multi-billion dollar exits for open source startups were already becoming the norm.

First-order effects

  • IBM has bet its largest deal ever on Red Hat hybrid cloud revenue, closing the $34B acquisition in July 2019 (its biggest transaction ever) — a make-or-break wager on open source as an enterprise business.
  • Salesforce gains MuleSoft's integration layer as a paid product line, converting a widely-adopted open source project into direct subscription revenue.

Second-order effects

  • Microsoft validated the same thesis from the buyer side, spending $9.1B across 20 acquisitions in FY 2019 led by the $7.5B GitHub deal (its third-biggest acquisition year since 2003) — hyperscalers now treat developer and infrastructure platforms as strategic purchases, not build-vs-buy afterthoughts.
  • With free software sitting inside billion-dollar corporate stacks, buyers need governance: FOSSA's $23.2M Series B for open source license and security management (bringing its total raised to $35M) shows a compliance tooling market forming around the consolidation.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, open source becomes infrastructure owned largely by a handful of large vendors, which is exactly why the Linux Foundation and OpenSSF lined up $150M+ for supply chain security with $30M+ pledged by Amazon, Google, Intel, and Microsoft (the industry underwriting the commons it now depends on).
  • The structural shift is that 'free' software no longer signals a small exit: venture capital pricing and acquirer appetite have converged on open source distribution as the cheapest way to reach enterprise customers, resetting how every infrastructure startup is valued.

The trend: Open source is completing its move from community-built commons to acquisition currency, with cloud-era incumbents paying record sums to own the distribution layer of enterprise software.