Sources: data mining giant Palantir is weighing an IPO as soon as H2 2019; some bankers have told the firm it could IPO with a valuation of as much as $41B
Bankers have told the firm it could go public with a valuation as high as $41 billion — Data-mining giant Palantir Technologies Inc. …
Context & Ripple Effects
Palantir's valuation history frames this report: the firm raised at a $20B valuation in 2015 and stayed private for years after, so bankers pitching a $41B IPO as soon as H2 2019 implies a doubling of its private-market mark in roughly three years.
What actually followed diverged from the banker pitch: Palantir instead confidentially filed with the SEC in mid-2020 and chose a direct listing in late September 2020 rather than a traditional underwritten IPO, telling investors shares could open around $10 — roughly a $22B valuation, about half the figure floated here.
First-order effects
- A $41B IPO would hand Palantir's employees and early backers liquidity on paper double their last private mark, while forcing the famously secretive data-mining firm to disclose finances it had avoided as a private company.
Second-order effects
- Bankers pitching a traditional IPO at $41B set the benchmark Palantir ultimately rejected: when it did list, it went the direct-listing route, cutting underwriters out of the fees and letting the market — not a roadshow — price the stock, which opened at $10 and closed at $9.50, near a $20.9B market cap.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, late-stage private tech firms treat banker valuation pitches as negotiable marketing rather than commitments, staying private past the point where an IPO was once automatic and favoring direct listings when they finally go public.
The trend: Late-stage private tech companies are delaying public debuts well past banker timelines and increasingly bypassing underwritten IPOs for direct listings priced by the market itself.