eMarketer forecast: video ad spending in the US will grow ~30% to $27.82B in 2018, making up 25% of US digital ad spending, with Facebook capturing ~24.5% of it
eMarketer and Newsroom Posts :
Context & Ripple Effects
This forecast lands mid-arc in digital's format migration: after display overtook search ad spending in 2016 and online ad sales crossed half of all US ad sales just weeks before this report, eMarketer now pegs video at a full quarter of US digital spend — with Facebook alone capturing nearly a quarter of that video pool.
The concentration matters because it arrives alongside Facebook's own product moves: the company is preparing to test a full-screen immersive video player that would replace the News Feed in select international markets, aligning its surface area with where the money is heading.
First-order effects
- Facebook's ~24.5% share of the $27.82B video pool puts roughly $6.8B in its hands, directly pressuring YouTube and TV-network sellers competing for the same video budgets.
- Advertisers committing a quarter of digital budgets to video force agencies and publishers to prioritize video inventory and production over static display formats.
Second-order effects
- Competitors respond on product rather than price: Facebook's planned immersive full-screen player replacing the News Feed is built to deepen exactly the video engagement this spending chases.
- Forecast divergence becomes a planning problem — IAB/PwC's later tally put 2018 US video growth at 37% but only $16.3B, far below eMarketer's $27.82B, exposing wide definitional gaps buyers must navigate.
Third-order effects
- If video keeps outgrowing overall digital (37% vs 22% in the IAB/PwC tally), spend consolidates around a handful of video-capable platforms — consistent with Omdia's finding that Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and TikTok capture over 90% of social media ad revenue.
- The pattern points toward video-first feeds becoming the default ad surface, with measurement bodies forced toward standardized video definitions as budgets follow whichever forecaster brands the category.
The trend: US ad budgets are consolidating into video formats controlled by a few dominant platforms, with forecasters' definitional gaps widening even as the directional shift stays fixed.